Why Are Gas Prices Going Up (and Why So High)?
Prices as of October 13, 2026 · Updated October 13, 2026
The short answer
Less oil is getting through the Strait of Hormuz (reducing global oil supply and refining capacity), so crude costs more.
- Regular averages $4.34 a gallon as of October 13, 2026, 40.9% higher than the $3.08 of a year ago (AAA).
- Crude oil is about 46% of every gallon of gasoline.
- Taxes and state fuel rules decide how far your state sits from that average.
Video explainer
Why gas went up, explained in 90 seconds
Where the price of a gallon goes, why oil got pricier, and why California pays more than Texas.
Read the transcript
Gas is $4.48 a gallon. A year ago it was $3.16. So where did the extra $1.32 come from?
Let's take one gallon apart. About $2 is the cost of crude oil. About $1.96 pays for refining, trucking, and the station. And 52 cents is taxes.
Start with the oil. Far less of it is getting out through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow sea lane out of the Persian Gulf.
This spring, flows fell to under 5 million barrels a day. At the end of last year, it was more than 21 million.
Less oil means pricier oil. The U.S. benchmark went from $60 a barrel in January to $102 a barrel in May.
Refining is tight, too. The gap between crude and gasoline is about a dollar a gallon, two and a half times its usual 40 cents.
Where you live sets the rest. A gallon of gasoline costs $6.19 in California, but only $3.96 in Texas. California's fuel taxes are more than three times higher, it requires its own gasoline blend and carbon programs, and it has fewer than half as many refineries.
Will it come down? The Energy Information Administration projects about $3.35 a gallon for 2027. That's a forecast, not a promise.
The sources for every number are at energyfactbook.com.
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Gas prices today (October 13, 2026)
The AAA national average for regular is $4.34 per gallon. It fell 1.4¢ from yesterday, fell 2.7¢ over the past week, and rose 2.8¢ over the past month, per AAA's own comparisons, fetched this morning.
The largest state moves since October 12, 2026: NC −10.2¢, FL +4.7¢, AK −3.8¢, MI −3.4¢, SC −2.7¢. 6 states rose and 19 fell by a penny or more. State-level prices and why they differ are on the gas prices hub, whose full state table updates weekly.
WTI crude settled at $96.24 on October 6, 2026 and was little changed since September 24, 2026 (EIA daily spot, published with a lag of several days). For seasonal footing, this same week of the year averaged between $2.17 and $3.91 across 2020–2025 in EIA's weekly survey.
| Week of | Regular ($/gal) | Change | Diesel ($/gal) |
|---|---|---|---|
| September 28, 2026 | $4.46 | −1.3¢ | $6.38 |
| September 21, 2026 | $4.48 | +15.9¢ | $6.53 |
| September 14, 2026 | $4.32 | +16.2¢ | $6.28 |
| September 7, 2026 | $4.16 | +8.6¢ | $5.97 |
| August 31, 2026 | $4.07 | −1.4¢ | $5.60 |
Weekly rows: EIA weekly U.S. average, regular all formulations, surveyed each Monday. Today's figure: AAA national average, fetched once each morning (about 11 a.m. Eastern). Crude: EIA daily WTI spot.
Pump price and crude oil since 2020
The pump price tracks the crude in a gallon. When the gray crude line moves, the blue pump line follows within a few weeks.
| Year | Average | Low | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $2.17 | $1.77 | $2.58 |
| 2021 | $3.01 | $2.25 | $3.41 |
| 2022 | $3.95 | $3.09 | $5.01 |
| 2023 | $3.52 | $3.05 | $3.88 |
| 2024 | $3.30 | $3.01 | $3.67 |
| 2025 | $3.10 | $2.81 | $3.24 |
| 2026 (through September 28, 2026) | $3.82 | $2.78 | $4.50 |
Pump price: weekly U.S. regular all-formulations retail price, EIA; the latest survey week (September 28, 2026) is $4.46. Crude: EIA monthly WTI spot average divided by 42 gallons per barrel, through August 2026. 2026 figures cover the year so far.
What you are actually paying for
A gallon of gasoline is three costs stacked on top of each other. Only one of them moves much from week to week.
| Component | Share of the pump price | $/gallon | What sets it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crude oil | 46% | $2.00 | A single world market price. Every state pays roughly the same. |
| Refining, distribution & marketing | 42% | $1.82 | Refinery capacity and outages, the fuel blend a region requires, pipelines, trucking, and station margins. |
| Taxes | 12% | $0.52 | Federal 18.4¢/gal plus state taxes and fees, which vary widely. |
Shares of the $4.34 national average as of October 13, 2026. Crude: EIA's WTI spot average for August 2026 divided by 42 gallons per barrel. Taxes: the federal 18.4¢ plus a simple average of state taxes of 33.6¢ (Tax Foundation, 2026). The remainder is refining, distribution and marketing, which we cannot split from public data. For comparison, EIA's own breakdown for May 2026 (retail price $4.48 that month) put crude at 52%, refining at 22%, distribution and marketing at 15%, and taxes at 12%.
Why gas prices went up this year: crude oil
West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, averaged $60/barrel in January 2026 and $102/barrel in May 2026, a swing of about 70%. It was $84 in August 2026. Because crude is nearly half the pump price, a move of that size shows up at the station within a few weeks.
EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook attributes the increase to supply disruption rather than demand. In its August 2026 edition, EIA reported that crude oil and petroleum liquids moving through the Strait of Hormuz fell to 4.9 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2026, down from an average of 21.6 million b/d in the fourth quarter of 2025, and that production shut-ins averaged 5.5 million b/d in July.
Why your state is different
Why gasoline is expensive in California.
Crude trades on a world market, so it is not why one state costs more than another. The spread comes from taxes, fuel-blend requirements, and how far fuel has to travel from a refinery. This week California averages $6.39 against $3.75 in Indiana, a gap of $2.64 a gallon on the same barrel of oil.
See all 50 states ranked, each with its price broken into crude, taxes, and everything else. State averages are from AAA as of October 04, 2026.
Refining conditions can move product prices independently of crude. The weekly NY Harbor crack-spread section shows the gasoline and diesel product-price proxies from EIA's three aligned weekly series, and the diesel explainer covers why diesel has pulled so far ahead of gasoline this year.
Will gas prices go down?
EIA projects they will. Its Short-Term Energy Outlook, as of October 4, 2026, has the U.S. average falling from $3.84/gallon in 2026 to $3.35/gallon in 2027, with Brent crude easing from $91 to $74 a barrel as shut-in production is restored and inventories rebuild.
This is EIA's projection, not ours, and EIA reissues it every month; we pull the current edition from EIA's API on each weekly refresh.
Frequently asked questions
Why did gas prices go up today?
As of October 13, 2026, the AAA national average for regular fell 1.4¢ from yesterday, to $4.34 per gallon; over the past week it fell 2.7¢. The larger move is the year: $1.26 higher than the $3.08 of a year ago, which the sections above trace to crude oil.
Why is gas so much more expensive in California than in Texas?
State taxes, fuel-blend rules, and refinery and pipeline access, not different crude prices. Crude trades on a world market, so every state pays about the same for it. California averages $6.39 against $3.75 in Indiana, a spread of $2.64. Our gas-prices hub decomposes every state's price into crude, taxes, and everything else.
Do gas prices fall as fast as they rise?
Nearly. From 2020 through August 2026, in the 21 months when the crude in a gallon rose by 10 cents or more, the pump price captured 100% of that increase within the same month. In the 20 months when crude fell by 10 cents or more, the pump price gave back 96% of the decrease. Both figures compare EIA's monthly WTI crude, converted to dollars per gallon, with the monthly average of EIA's weekly pump price. The gap is real but small.
How much of the price of gas is taxes?
About 12% of the national average right now: the federal 18.4¢ a gallon plus a simple average of state taxes of 33.6¢ (Tax Foundation, 2026), or $0.52 of a $4.34 gallon. State rates vary by tens of cents, which is the main reason two neighboring states can differ on the same crude.
Is this the highest gas has ever been?
No. Regular averaged $4.46 the week of September 28, 2026 (EIA). The record is $5.01, the week of June 13, 2022, so this week is 54 cents below it. Adjusted for inflation (CPI-U, August 2026 dollars), the record belongs to June 30, 2008: $4.09 then is $6.27 today, and the $5.01 of June 13, 2022 is $5.66. Diesel's record is $6.53, the week of September 21, 2026; it is $6.38 this week.
Why isn't the Keystone Pipeline helping keep gas prices down?
Three reasons. First, Keystone carries crude oil, not gasoline or diesel. It delivers Canadian crude to Midwest and Gulf Coast refineries, and the fuel still has to be refined. Refining margins, not the cost of moving crude, are where product prices move independently of the oil price. Second, the existing Keystone system is already running (about 594,000 barrels a day in late 2025, per operator South Bow); the never-built Keystone XL extension was terminated in June 2021, and as of September 2026 a partial revival is at the planning stage with a decision targeted for mid-2027. Third, pipelines move crude; they do not price it. Crude trades on a world market, Canada already supplies about 3.9 million barrels a day to U.S. refiners, and a Department of Energy study required by the 2021 infrastructure law found the pump-price effect of Keystone XL "inconclusive."
Why aren't we using more of our own oil?
We use all of it, and we export more petroleum than we import. The United States was the world's largest oil producer in 2025, at 13.6 million barrels a day of crude (Energy Institute Statistical Review 2026). It is a net petroleum exporter, by about 1.6 million barrels a day in 2023 (EIA). The country is also drawing on stored oil: the Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell from 415 million barrels in early March 2026 to 283 million the week of October 2, 2026, after DOE's 172-million-barrel emergency release.
Producers are drilling more, but slowly. EIA projects U.S. crude output at 13.8 million barrels a day in 2026 and 14.3 million in 2027, up from 13.7 million in 2025. Companies are wary of spending billions on wells that only pay off if prices stay high, and prices would fall if the wars end. In the Dallas Fed's second-quarter 2026 survey, the index for expected capital spending next year was zero. One executive wrote that "elevated oil prices are not directly translating into increased production." Asked how much U.S. production would grow in 2027 with oil at $100, the most common answer was a quarter to half a million barrels a day.
The U.S. produces more oil than any other country. Why doesn't that keep gas cheap?
For most of the past decade, it did. U.S. crude output rose from 5.0 million barrels a day in 2008 to 12.3 million in 2019 and 13.6 million in 2025 (Energy Institute). That growth is why OPEC's share never recovered, and it brought lower prices worldwide: crude averaged about $99 a barrel in 2011–2014 and $53 in 2015–2019 (EIA refiner acquisition cost).
But oil trades on a single world market, and two wars are now hitting the world's #2 and #3 producers. Saudi Arabia (#2) ships its oil through the Strait of Hormuz, as do Iran (#5), Iraq (#6), the UAE (#8), Kuwait (#10), and Qatar (#13). Together, the Middle East produces 31% of the world's oil. Russia (#3) is at war in Ukraine and under sanctions. When that much supply is disrupted, every barrel costs more, including American barrels, because U.S. producers can sell to buyers anywhere in the world. U.S. production helps, and prices would be higher without it, but it can't replace the Gulf and Russia.
How do gas prices in Canada compare with the United States, in U.S. dollars?
Canada publishes its average monthly, so the latest comparison is August 2026. Canadian regular averaged C$1.738 per litre (C$6.58 per gallon), or $4.69 a gallon in U.S. dollars. U.S. regular averaged $4.06. Canadian drivers paid about 63 cents a gallon more, or about 15%. Sources: Statistics Canada table 18-10-0001 for self-serve regular, converted at European Central Bank reference rates; EIA weekly prices for the U.S., averaged over August. Both countries pay the world price for crude, so the gap comes from what is added after the crude: taxes, refining, and distribution. The U.S. national average is $4.34 as of October 13, 2026 (AAA). See gasoline prices by country for more comparisons.
Why are gas prices so high right now?
There are several reasons, but the biggest are two wars: the conflict in the Middle East and Russia's war in Ukraine. Together they have cut both the oil moving around the world and the gasoline and diesel refined from it. Six of the world's 10 largest oil producers are at war or ship their oil through the Strait of Hormuz: Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iran, Iraq, the UAE, and Kuwait (Energy Institute, 2025 production). Three of the eight largest refining countries, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Iran, are involved in those two conflicts (2025 refinery throughput), and Ukrainian drones have hit a Russian refinery about once every three days this year (IEA).
Before this year the oil system had some slack: spare production in the Middle East, spare refining capacity, and fuel in storage. The wars have used a lot of it up. U.S. refineries are running flat out, refining margins are well above normal, and crude is about 46% of the price of a gallon.
Crude oil prices fell. Why is gas still going up?
Crude oil prices have come down, but crude is only part of the story. U.S. crude (WTI) peaked at $107 a barrel on September 15, 2026 (EIA) and fell for five straight sessions to about $90 by September 23 (Trading Economics). That is still about 38% above 2025's average of $65 (EIA).
The bigger factor right now is refining, and the refining market is very tight. U.S. refineries have run at 96% to 98% of capacity almost every week since July, against an average of 91% in 2025. The wars in the Middle East and Ukraine have cut refinery output abroad, so there is little slack anywhere, and the buffers are thin: U.S. diesel inventories on September 11 were the lowest for that week of the year in EIA records going back to 1983. With no spare refining capacity and low stocks, refining margins stay high even as crude oil production increases.
When will gas prices go down?
Gas prices will fall when the oil market is under less pressure, and right now it is under a lot. Six of the world's 10 largest oil producers are at war or ship through the Strait of Hormuz, and Russia's refineries ran at their lowest level since 2004 in June after Ukrainian drone strikes (IEA). Until those supplies recover, prices will be slow to come down.
EIA doesn't give a date for gasoline prices to fall, but it does project a decline. In its September 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook, EIA expects regular to average $3.35 in 2027, down from $3.84 for 2026 as a whole. It expects Brent crude to fall from $91 a barrel to $74. That forecast assumes Middle East oil returns gradually: EIA expects "some constraints to exporting oil from the Middle East will persist through the end of the year," which keeps the region's production "below pre-conflict averages until the second quarter of 2027."
Producers see the timing the same way. In the Dallas Fed's second-quarter 2026 survey, one executive expected oil to "settle back to around the $70-per-barrel range" 90 to 120 days after the conflict ends. Pump prices follow crude in both directions: since 2020 they have given back 96% of crude's declines, usually within a month (see "Do gas prices fall as fast as they rise?" above).
CENTCOM says 1 billion barrels of oil have moved through the Strait of Hormuz. Why is gas still so high?
On September 19, 2026, CENTCOM said the military had supported the transit of 1 billion barrels of oil through the Strait of Hormuz over the past two months, not the past two days (Fortune). That works out to roughly 16 to 17 million barrels a day. Before the war, the strait carried 21.6 million barrels a day of crude and products (EIA, late 2025). Even taken at face value, that is about three-quarters of normal, and independent monitors say shipping remains well below prewar levels. Iran's own exports are at zero under the U.S. blockade. Still, more oil is moving than in the spring, when EIA measured 4.9 million barrels a day.
That is only part of the story. The other part is Russia's war on Ukraine. Ukraine has been striking Russian refineries and oil infrastructure with drones, hitting a refinery about once every three days in the first eight months of 2026, according to the IEA. Russian refineries processed 3.8 million barrels a day in June, down 30% from a year earlier and the lowest since 2004, and Russia has banned exports of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel (Oil & Gas Journal). Those losses come on top of the oil and fuel missing from the Middle East, which leaves the global market very tight.
Why are oil companies allowed to raise prices when supply is short and demand is strong?
Because the alternative is worse. When less oil is available, something has to decide who gets it. A higher price does that: it gets drivers and businesses to use a little less, and it pays producers, refiners, and importers to bring in more supply as fast as they can. The real choice is who makes those decisions: buyers and sellers, or bureaucrats.
The United States has tried letting bureaucrats set prices instead of buyers and sellers, and it was ugly. Price controls on oil "began in 1971 as a 90 day expedient to control inflation" and lasted a decade. They brought gas lines, and "after the elimination of price controls, the real price of gasoline fell for over two decades" (James Griffin, IER). Controls also "lead to lower supplies in future emergencies," because no one gets paid to hold spare inventory. Price-gouging laws are emergency price controls, and they hurt the people they are meant to protect: when a capped price creates a shortage, "higher income households will inevitably have the upper hand over lower income households," and more so when government controls prices (Jeffrey Miron, Cato).
How much was gas at the pump in 2025?
Regular gasoline averaged $3.10 a gallon in 2025 (the average of EIA's 52 weekly national prices). That was the lowest annual average since 2021 (EIA). Prices then climbed in 2026: the national average was $4.34 on October 13, 2026 (AAA), 40.9% higher than the $3.08 of a year earlier.
Why aren't we drilling more of our own oil?
U.S. producers are drilling more, but slowly. U.S. crude oil production has been:
- 13.27 million barrels a day in 2024 (EIA)
- 13.66 million barrels a day in 2025 (EIA)
- 13.71 million barrels a day in 2026, averaging January through June (EIA)
EIA projects 14.3 million barrels a day in 2027 (Short-Term Energy Outlook). A challenge is that companies are wary of spending billions on wells that pay off only if prices stay high. In the Dallas Fed's second-quarter 2026 survey, the index for expected capital spending next year was zero.
My state has lots of oil wells. Why isn't our gas cheaper?
A state's oil wells are just one step in the process. After crude oil is produced, it has to be transported and refined. What makes one state's gas cheaper than another's is what gets added after the crude: state taxes, fuel-blend rules, and how far the fuel travels from a refinery.
The top oil states show it. As of October 04, 2026 (AAA):
- Texas, the largest producer (5.8 million barrels a day in 2025), has the 3rd cheapest gas, $3.91.
- New Mexico, the second-largest (2.2 million barrels a day), pays $4.35, close to the national average of $4.46.
- Alaska produces 0.4 million barrels a day and has the lowest state gas tax in the country (8.95¢ a gallon), yet it has the 6th most expensive gas, $5.04.
- California, the eighth-largest producer (0.3 million barrels a day), has the most expensive gas in the country, $6.39, with the highest state taxes and its own fuel-blend rules.
Our gas prices by state page breaks every state's price into crude, taxes, and everything else.
Where can I find gas prices for my town or county?
This site doesn't have local prices; each state page carries the statewide average. GasBuddy.com lists station prices by city, for example Toccoa, in Stephens County, Georgia.
Related
Sources: EIA Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (weekly retail prices, price components), EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (crude and gasoline projections), EIA WTI Cushing spot price, AAA (national and state averages), and the Tax Foundation (state fuel taxes). See methodology.