Oil price shocks since 1973
Monthly data through June 2026 (EIA) · Updated August 21, 2026
U.S. refiners paid $91.32 per barrel of crude oil in June 2026. The record month is July 2008, at $129.03 nominal, about $196 in June 2026 dollars; the cheapest month in real terms is December 1998, at $9.81 (about $20 real). Between those extremes sit 12 distinct episodes, from the 1973–74 embargo to the +77% rise between December 2025 and May 2026. This page walks through each one on a single measured series: EIA’s refiner acquisition cost of crude, the average price refiners actually paid, every month since January 1974.
The whole record on one chart
Source: EIA, refiner acquisition cost of crude oil, composite, monthly. Real values in constant June 2026 dollars, deflated by CPI-U (BLS series CUUR0000SA0). October 2025 is omitted from the real line; BLS never published a CPI value for that month after the fall 2025 federal funding lapse. Shaded bands mark the episodes described below.
Every episode, in one table
| Episode | Window | Price move ($/bbl, nominal) | Change | Peak or trough, June 2026 $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The 1973–74 embargo (import FOB cost) | Oct 1973 – Jun 1974 | $4.24 → $11.45 | +170% | $78 |
| 1979–81: the Iranian revolution and the second shock | Dec 1978 – Mar 1981 | $12.93 → $37.48 | +190% | $141 |
| 1981–85: the long slide | Mar 1981 – Sep 1985 | $37.48 → $26.45 | −29% | $82 |
| 1986: the counter-shock | Nov 1985 – Jul 1986 | $26.86 → $11.26 | −58% | $34 |
| 1990–91: the Gulf crisis | Jun 1990 – Oct 1990 | $15.11 → $33.14 | +119% | $83 |
| 1997–99: the collapse | Jan 1997 – Dec 1998 | $23.59 → $9.81 | −58% | $20 |
| 2002–08: the run-up | Jan 2002 – Jul 2008 | $17.38 → $129.03 | +642% | $196 |
| 2008–09: the crash | Jul 2008 – Jan 2009 | $129.03 → $37.45 | −71% | $59 |
| 2014–16: shale and OPEC | Jun 2014 – Feb 2016 | $102.51 → $28.53 | −72% | $40 |
| 2020: the pandemic | Jan 2020 – Apr 2020 | $57.92 → $19.32 | −67% | $25 |
| 2022: the invasion of Ukraine | Dec 2021 – Jun 2022 | $71.98 → $114.44 | +59% | $129 |
| 2026 to date | Dec 2025 – May 2026 | $59.09 → $104.63 | +77% | $104 |
Change is measured from the first month of each window to its extreme within the window, on the monthly series; picking different endpoints gives different figures. All rows use the refiner acquisition cost except the 1973–74 embargo, which predates it and uses EIA’s FOB cost of imported crude (from October 1973).
The episodes
Each episode below reports the same three things: what the price did, what production did, and the dated public event, with a source. Price figures are monthly averages from the EIA series above; production figures are annual, from the Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy, in thousand barrels per day of crude oil, condensates and natural gas liquids.
The 1973–74 embargo
The cost of imported crude went from $4.24 in Oct 1973 to $11.45 in Jun 1974 (+170%; $78 in June 2026 dollars). The refiner-acquisition series on the chart begins in January 1974, already at $7.46, so this episode is measured on EIA's FOB import-cost series, which starts in October 1973.
World production fell from 58,552 thousand barrels per day in 1973 to 55,811 in 1975 (−4.7%).
The Arab members of OPEC announced an embargo on oil sales to the United States in October 1973 and lifted it in March 1974 (U.S. State Department, Office of the Historian). The Strategic Petroleum Reserve was authorized in its aftermath, in 1975.
1979–81: the Iranian revolution and the second shock
Refiners' composite cost went from $12.93 in Dec 1978 to $37.48 in Mar 1981 (+190%; $141 in June 2026 dollars).
Iranian production fell from 5,302 thousand barrels per day in 1978 to 1,321 in 1981 (−75.1%); world production fell from 66,067 in 1979 to 59,493 in 1981.
Iranian oil exports collapsed during the revolution of 1978–79, and Iraq invaded Iran in September 1980 (Federal Reserve History).
1981–85: the long slide
From the Mar 1981 peak of $37.48, the composite cost drifted down to $26.45 by Sep 1985: −29% in nominal dollars, but −42% in real terms, because inflation ran high through these years.
OPEC output fell from 29,400 thousand barrels per day in 1979 to 15,212 in 1985 (−48.3%) while non-OPEC output rose from 36,667 to 42,132 (+14.9%).
OPEC cut output through these years defending the price, and lost half its market share doing it; that story is on the OPEC page.
1986: the counter-shock
The composite cost fell from $26.86 in Nov 1985 to $11.26 in Jul 1986 (−58%; $34 in June 2026 dollars).
Saudi output rose from 3,601 thousand barrels per day in 1985 to 5,208 in 1986 (+44.6%).
Saudi Arabia stopped cutting its own production to defend the price in late 1985; the production numbers above are the event.
1990–91: the Gulf crisis
The composite cost went from $15.11 in Jun 1990 to $33.14 in Oct 1990 (+119%; $83 in June 2026 dollars), then was back to $17.89 by Mar 1991.
Iraq and Kuwait together produced 4,246 thousand barrels per day in 1989 and 470 in 1991 (−88.9%).
Iraq invaded Kuwait on August 2, 1990.
1997–99: the collapse
The composite cost fell from $23.59 in Jan 1997 to $9.81 in Dec 1998 (−58%; $20 in June 2026 dollars). In real terms Dec 1998 is the cheapest month in the entire series.
World production rose from 69,478 thousand barrels per day in 1996 to 73,014 in 1998 (+5.1%) while the price halved.
The Asian financial crisis began in July 1997.
2002–08: the run-up
The composite cost went from $17.38 in Jan 2002 to $129.03 in Jul 2008 (+642%; $196 in June 2026 dollars): a 7.4-fold rise across six and a half years, to the record month of the series in both nominal and real dollars.
World production grew from 73,990 thousand barrels per day in 2002 to 83,029 in 2008 (+12.2%), and U.S. production in 2008 was 6,783, its lowest year in the Energy Institute series.
No single dated event marks this episode; the climb ran six years. The U.S. production turnaround that followed it is charted on the OPEC page.
2008–09: the crash
The composite cost fell from $129.03 in Jul 2008 to $37.45 in Jan 2009 (−71%; $59 in June 2026 dollars).
World production fell from 83,029 thousand barrels per day in 2008 to 81,399 in 2009 (−2.0%).
The financial crisis reached its acute phase in September 2008.
2014–16: shale and OPEC
The composite cost fell from $102.51 in Jun 2014 to $28.53 in Feb 2016 (−72%; $40 in June 2026 dollars).
U.S. production rose from 7,559 thousand barrels per day in 2010 to 12,776 in 2015 (+69.0%).
OPEC's November 27, 2014 meeting left its production target unchanged in the face of that growth.
2020: the pandemic
The composite cost fell from $57.92 in Jan 2020 to $19.32 in Apr 2020 (−67%; $25 in June 2026 dollars). On April 20, 2020 the WTI front-month futures contract settled below zero for the first time (EIA); the monthly average here never went negative.
World production fell from 95,127 thousand barrels per day in 2019 to 88,943 in 2020 (−6.5%).
COVID-19 stay-at-home orders began in March 2020.
2022: the invasion of Ukraine
The composite cost went from $71.98 in Dec 2021 to $114.44 in Jun 2022 (+59%; $129 in June 2026 dollars).
Russian production, the feared loss, did not fall: the Energy Institute reports 11,000 thousand barrels per day in 2021 and 11,202 in 2022.
Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022.
2026 to date
The composite cost went from $59.09 in Dec 2025 to $104.63 in May 2026 (+77%; $104 in June 2026 dollars), easing to $91.32 in Jun 2026.
Annual production data end in 2025; what can be said about 2026 flows so far is on the oil chokepoints page.
The rise coincides with the period, beginning in late February 2026, for which EIA reports that Strait of Hormuz tanker-tracking data became unreliable; what those transit numbers can and cannot say is examined on the Hormuz page.
Questions people ask
When was crude oil most expensive?
July 2008, in both nominal and real terms: U.S. refiners' composite acquisition cost averaged $129.03 per barrel that month, $196 in June 2026 dollars. The 1981 peak of $37.48 ($141 real) is the second-highest real reading.
When was crude oil cheapest?
In real terms, December 1998: $9.81 per barrel, about $20 in June 2026 dollars, at the bottom of the 1997–99 collapse. April 2020 came close: $19.32 nominal, and daily futures prices briefly went below zero that month.
What price series is this?
EIA's refiner acquisition cost of crude oil, composite: the average price U.S. refiners actually paid for domestic and imported crude delivered to their refineries, monthly since January 1974 (EIA series R0000____3). The 1973–74 embargo episode alone uses EIA's FOB cost of imported crude, which begins in October 1973. Spot benchmarks like WTI and Brent only begin in 1986, which is why this older series carries the shocks page.
Why show both nominal and real prices?
Because inflation reshapes the story: the 1981 peak looks low in nominal dollars ($37.48) and severe in real ones ($141). Real values deflate by CPI-U (BLS series CUUR0000SA0, all items, U.S. city average, not seasonally adjusted) into constant June 2026 dollars. October 2025 has no CPI value; BLS never published one after the fall 2025 federal funding lapse, so that month is omitted from the real series.
What is happening to oil prices in 2026?
Refiners' composite cost rose from $59.09 in December 2025 to $104.63 in May 2026 (+77%). The rise coincides with the period for which EIA reports Strait of Hormuz tanker tracking became unreliable; see the Hormuz page and the gas prices explainer for what EIA projects next.
Related pages
- OPEC and the world's oil: the production shares behind the 1973 peak and the 1985 trough
- The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve: the stockpile the 1973 embargo produced, tracked weekly
- World oil chokepoints: where the barrels physically move, and what 2026 tanker data can and cannot say
- The Hormuz numbers: the 2026 measurement problem in detail
- U.S. refining: who buys this crude
- Why are gas prices high right now?: what the crude price means at the pump