Why U.S. Electricity Demand Is Growing Again
U.S. electricity demand grew 2.1% in 2025, according to IEA’s estimate. IEA forecasts more than 420 TWh of additional demand from 2026 to 2030, with data centers accounting for about 50% of that forecast growth. IEA analysis adapted by Energy Factbook. See where grid demand is growing.
Four drivers
Data centers
Forecast: about 50% of IEA’s projected growth through 2030.
Buildings and weather
Measured-period context: buildings accounted for more than 70% of growth in 2024 and 2025.
Manufacturing
Industrial billed-sales changes are reported below; this page does not assign those changes to individual activities or facilities.
Transport electrification
Transportation billed-sales changes are reported below; this customer class is not a measure of all electric-vehicle charging.
U.S. retail electricity sales
Show the data table
| Year | TWh |
|---|---|
| 2001 | 3,394.5 |
| 2002 | 3,465.5 |
| 2003 | 3,493.7 |
| 2004 | 3,547.5 |
| 2005 | 3,661.0 |
| 2006 | 3,669.9 |
| 2007 | 3,764.6 |
| 2008 | 3,734.0 |
| 2009 | 3,596.8 |
| 2010 | 3,754.8 |
| 2011 | 3,749.8 |
| 2012 | 3,694.6 |
| 2013 | 3,724.9 |
| 2014 | 3,764.7 |
| 2015 | 3,759.0 |
| 2016 | 3,762.5 |
| 2017 | 3,723.4 |
| 2018 | 3,859.2 |
| 2019 | 3,811.2 |
| 2020 | 3,717.7 |
| 2021 | 3,805.9 |
| 2022 | 3,927.2 |
| 2023 | 3,874.3 |
| 2024 | 3,975.4 |
| 2025 | 4,058.0 |
Measured endpoint: 2025. EIA retail sales are not generation and are not numerically identical to IEA’s broader electricity-demand definition.
Where measured electricity sales changed
| Customer class | 2019 TWh | 2025 TWh | Change TWh |
|---|---|---|---|
| Residential | 1,440.3 | 1,515.0 | +74.7 |
| Commercial | 1,360.9 | 1,493.5 | +132.6 |
| Industrial | 1,002.4 | 1,042.2 | +39.9 |
| Transportation | 7.6 | 7.3 | -0.3 |
This is a sector accounting change, not a causal decomposition. Regional demand and state billed-sales changes.
What the forecast says
| IEA forecast metric | 2026–2030 |
|---|---|
| Additional electricity demand | More than 420 TWh |
| Data centers’ share of forecast growth | About 50% |
No exact unpublished driver values are inferred. IEA forecast source.
Data-center forecast context
| Edition | Year | Scenario | TWh |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Update | 2024 | historical | 192 |
| 2025 Update | 2028 | reference | 464 |
| 2025 Update | 2030 | reference | 649 |
| 2025 Update | 2030 | bound_low | 521 |
| 2025 Update | 2030 | bound_high | 843 |
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, United States Data Center Energy Usage Report: 2025 Update. Excludes cryptocurrency mining. 2024 is the last historical year in the 2025 Update; its 2025 values include some projection because IT shipment data extend through 2025 Q3. LBNL and IEA are separate forecasts with different methods and must not be added together.
How much was weather?
EIA-930 grid demand is not retail sales. These two measures are never subtracted.
| Territory | 2019 TWh | 2025 TWh | Change TWh | Change % | Weather-adjusted estimate change % | YTD same days % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lower 48 | 4,016.8 | 4,298.3 | +281.5 | +7.0% | +8.3% | +3.2% |
2024 to 2025: observed change +2.4%; weather-adjusted estimate +2.0%.
Why forecasts can be wrong
The projections shown here are forecasts, not measured future outcomes. This page does not quantify their forecast errors. These are source forecasts, not Energy Factbook forecasts.
Methods and sources
Annual retail sales are converted from million kilowatt hours to MWh on ingestion and to TWh only for display. The total-only history avoids the historical sector-registry break. Forecasts remain separate from measured history. The IEA figures on this page were checked against the text of IEA's Electricity 2026 report (published 2026-02-06) on 2026-10-21. Licence: CC BY 4.0.
Full weather methods and validation gates
U.S. energy facts, Data centers, Data centers and electricity prices, Why electricity bills are high.
Frequently asked questions
Why was U.S. electricity demand flat?
U.S. retail sales were 3,764.6 TWh in 2007, 3,805.9 TWh in 2021 (+1.1%), and 4,058.0 TWh in 2025 (+6.6% since 2021). This page does not decompose the causes.
Are data centers the main reason demand is increasing?
IEA attributes about 50% of forecast U.S. growth through 2030 to data centers. That does not mean data centers caused all recent measured growth.
Is electricity demand the same as electricity generation?
No. Generation measures electricity produced. Grid demand includes losses, and retail sales measure deliveries to final customers; all have different boundaries.