Where U.S. Electricity Demand Is Growing

Name: Where U.S. Electricity Demand Is Growing
Creator: Energy Factbook
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Among regions with comparable complete data, Texas added the most grid demand from 2019 to 2025: 105.1 TWh. Texas had the largest percentage increase, 27.4%. Lower-48 grid demand reached 4,298.3 TWh, up 7.0%. Year-to-date demand through 2026-10-19 changed +3.2% versus the same calendar days a year earlier. The weather-adjusted ranking cannot separate the top regions. Why U.S. electricity demand is growing

By EIA region

Grid demand through 2025
Territory	2019 TWh	2025 TWh	Change TWh	Change %	Weather-adjusted estimate change %	YTD same days %
California	264.4	272.6	+8.2	+3.1%	+3.9%	+5.8%
Carolinas	220.0	227.9	+7.8	+3.6%	Not reliable	+3.2%
Central	270.1	300.4	+30.3	+11.2%	+12.8%	+4.6%
Florida	241.6	267.5	+26.0	+10.8%	+16.3%	+2.1%
Mid-Atlantic	800.3	842.8	+42.5	+5.3%	+6.0%	+3.6%
Midwest	707.7	726.8	+19.0	+2.7%	+3.3%	+2.5%
New England	118.3	115.3	-3.0	-2.6%	-2.5%	+2.5%
Northwest	347.9	372.2	+24.3	+7.0%	+7.6%	+0.4%
New York	155.8	151.5	-4.3	-2.8%	-3.0%	-0.1%
Southeast	243.2	239.2	-4.0	-1.6%	-0.1%	+3.6%
Southwest	104.5	122.6	+18.2	+17.4%	+18.3%	+3.2%
Tennessee	159.3	170.7	+11.3	+7.1%	+6.7% to +7.9% depending on model specification	+2.5%
Texas	383.7	488.8	+105.1	+27.4%	+28.0%	+5.1%
Lower 48	4,016.8	4,298.3	+281.5	+7.0%	+8.3%	+3.2%

Observed and weather-adjusted estimate grid demand change, 2019 to 2025, as reported in the regions table above.

By grid operator

These ISO/RTOs do not partition the country: non-RTO areas are omitted.

Grid demand through 2025
Territory	2019 TWh	2025 TWh	Change TWh	Change %	Weather-adjusted estimate change %	YTD same days %
CAISO	214.2	224.0	+9.9	+4.6%	+5.4%	+6.3%
ERCOT	383.7	488.8	+105.1	+27.4%	+28.0%	+5.1%
ISO New England	118.3	115.3	-3.0	-2.6%	-2.5%	+2.5%
MISO	649.5	666.3	+16.8	+2.6%	+3.1%	+2.7%
NYISO	155.8	151.5	-4.3	-2.8%	-3.0%	-0.1%
PJM	800.3	842.8	+42.5	+5.3%	+6.0%	+3.6%
SPP	269.5	300.3	+30.8	+11.4%	+13.0%	+4.6%

Who is using the new electricity

Billed sales through 2024; source release status: final. Billed sales are not grid demand and are never subtracted from it. These tables describe customer-class accounting changes, not causal explanations.

California billed sales

Billed sales through 2024. Net matched billed-sales change: -4.9 TWh.

Largest increases and decreases in matched billed sales
State	Customer class	2019 TWh	2024 TWh	Change TWh	Change %
CA	Commercial	112.5	113.0	+0.5	+0.4%
CA	Transportation	0.7	0.7	-0.0	-6.3%
CA	Residential	86.9	85.2	-1.7	-2.0%
CA	Industrial	45.6	42.0	-3.6	-8.0%


Endpoint	Excluded MWh	Unmapped upper bound MWh	Coverage gate
2019	0.0	12,928.0	passed
2024	0.0	48,798.0	passed

Carolinas billed sales

Billed sales through 2024. Net matched billed-sales change: +4.6 TWh.

Largest increases and decreases in matched billed sales
State	Customer class	2019 TWh	2024 TWh	Change TWh	Change %
SC	Commercial	22.2	26.3	+4.1	+18.7%
NC	Residential	57.0	58.9	+1.9	+3.3%
SC	Residential	31.2	32.5	+1.4	+4.4%
NC	Commercial	47.7	48.1	+0.4	+0.8%
NC	Industrial	25.3	23.8	-1.5	-5.8%
SC	Industrial	26.9	25.1	-1.8	-6.6%


Endpoint	Excluded MWh	Unmapped upper bound MWh	Coverage gate
2019	0.0	6,982.0	passed
2024	0.0	0.0	passed

Central billed sales

Billed sales through 2024. Net matched billed-sales change: +20.6 TWh.

Largest increases and decreases in matched billed sales
State	Customer class	2019 TWh	2024 TWh	Change TWh	Change %
OK	Commercial	19.6	24.7	+5.2	+26.5%
NM	Industrial	5.0	9.0	+4.0	+80.4%
ND	Industrial	7.0	10.8	+3.8	+54.8%
NE	Commercial	9.1	12.5	+3.4	+37.2%
ND	Commercial	2.7	4.6	+1.9	+70.1%
KS	Commercial	15.9	15.8	-0.1	-0.8%
LA	Commercial	2.4	2.2	-0.1	-6.2%
LA	Residential	3.1	2.8	-0.3	-8.8%
TX	Residential	8.7	7.7	-1.0	-11.5%
TX	Commercial	10.2	8.9	-1.3	-12.9%


Endpoint	Excluded MWh	Unmapped upper bound MWh	Coverage gate
2019	0.0	2,608.0	passed
2024	0.0	2,057.0	passed

Florida billed sales

Billed sales through 2024. Net matched billed-sales change: +25.5 TWh.

Largest increases and decreases in matched billed sales
State	Customer class	2019 TWh	2024 TWh	Change TWh	Change %
FL	Residential	120.1	136.5	+16.5	+13.7%
FL	Commercial	92.3	98.7	+6.4	+6.9%
FL	Industrial	14.6	17.3	+2.7	+18.5%
FL	Transportation	0.1	0.1	-0.0	Not available


Endpoint	Excluded MWh	Unmapped upper bound MWh	Coverage gate
2019	0.0	0.0	passed
2024	0.0	0.0	passed

Mid-Atlantic billed sales

Billed sales through 2024. Net matched billed-sales change: +16.6 TWh.

Largest increases and decreases in matched billed sales
State	Customer class	2019 TWh	2024 TWh	Change TWh	Change %
VA	Commercial	53.5	78.3	+24.7	+46.2%
OH	Commercial	46.0	50.8	+4.8	+10.4%
NJ	Residential	28.6	29.7	+1.1	+3.8%
IL	Residential	27.7	28.5	+0.8	+2.7%
KY	Commercial	4.7	5.3	+0.6	+11.9%
VA	Residential	46.0	44.7	-1.4	-3.0%
PA	Industrial	50.4	48.8	-1.6	-3.2%
PA	Commercial	40.1	38.5	-1.6	-4.0%
IL	Commercial	32.8	30.0	-2.9	-8.7%
VA	Industrial	17.4	13.6	-3.8	-21.7%


Endpoint	Excluded MWh	Unmapped upper bound MWh	Coverage gate
2019	0.0	11,516.0	passed
2024	0.0	6,574.0	passed

Midwest billed sales

Billed sales through 2024. Net matched billed-sales change: -3.3 TWh.

Largest increases and decreases in matched billed sales
State	Customer class	2019 TWh	2024 TWh	Change TWh	Change %
IA	Industrial	23.1	26.4	+3.3	+14.1%
LA	Industrial	36.6	39.5	+2.9	+8.0%
ND	Commercial	4.3	6.7	+2.4	+55.0%
AR	Industrial	13.7	15.9	+2.2	+16.1%
TX	Industrial	9.3	10.4	+1.1	+12.3%
IL	Commercial	16.4	15.3	-1.2	-7.1%
MI	Industrial	28.9	27.3	-1.6	-5.4%
MN	Industrial	21.4	19.7	-1.7	-8.0%
IN	Industrial	35.6	33.0	-2.6	-7.2%
KY	Industrial	17.4	14.7	-2.7	-15.6%


Endpoint	Excluded MWh	Unmapped upper bound MWh	Coverage gate
2019	0.0	0.0	passed
2024	0.0	2,057.0	passed

New England billed sales

Billed sales through 2024. Net matched billed-sales change: -2.5 TWh.

Largest increases and decreases in matched billed sales
State	Customer class	2019 TWh	2024 TWh	Change TWh	Change %
MA	Residential	19.3	20.0	+0.7	+3.5%
CT	Residential	12.5	12.9	+0.4	+3.6%
NH	Residential	4.5	4.8	+0.3	+7.6%
VT	Residential	2.1	2.2	+0.1	+7.1%
RI	Residential	3.0	3.1	+0.1	+4.3%
ME	Industrial	2.4	2.0	-0.4	-16.9%
CT	Commercial	12.2	11.7	-0.5	-4.1%
CT	Industrial	3.1	2.6	-0.5	-16.8%
MA	Industrial	6.3	5.6	-0.7	-11.0%
MA	Commercial	25.3	23.5	-1.8	-7.3%


Endpoint	Excluded MWh	Unmapped upper bound MWh	Coverage gate
2019	0.0	7,640.0	passed
2024	0.0	13,763.0	passed

Northwest billed sales

Billed sales through 2024. Net matched billed-sales change: +19.1 TWh.

Largest increases and decreases in matched billed sales
State	Customer class	2019 TWh	2024 TWh	Change TWh	Change %
OR	Commercial	16.4	24.7	+8.2	+50.2%
WA	Commercial	29.3	33.1	+3.8	+13.1%
NV	Commercial	11.6	14.2	+2.6	+22.3%
UT	Commercial	11.8	14.1	+2.3	+19.3%
WA	Residential	36.5	38.6	+2.1	+5.8%
NV	Industrial	12.4	11.8	-0.7	-5.3%
UT	Industrial	9.5	8.7	-0.8	-8.5%
CO	Industrial	15.9	14.9	-1.0	-6.3%
WY	Industrial	10.3	9.0	-1.4	-13.2%
WA	Industrial	25.2	18.2	-7.0	-27.9%


Endpoint	Excluded MWh	Unmapped upper bound MWh	Coverage gate
2019	0.0	15,536.0	passed
2024	0.0	48,798.0	passed

New York billed sales

Billed sales through 2024. Net matched billed-sales change: -5.3 TWh.

Largest increases and decreases in matched billed sales
State	Customer class	2019 TWh	2024 TWh	Change TWh	Change %
NY	Residential	50.0	50.8	+0.8	+1.6%
NY	Transportation	2.8	2.8	-0.0	-1.3%
NJ	Commercial	0.3	0.0	-0.3	Not available
NY	Industrial	17.5	15.8	-1.7	-9.9%
NY	Commercial	75.1	71.0	-4.0	-5.4%


Endpoint	Excluded MWh	Unmapped upper bound MWh	Coverage gate
2019	0.0	7,428.0	passed
2024	0.0	6,574.0	passed

Southeast billed sales

Billed sales through 2024. Net matched billed-sales change: -1.7 TWh.

Largest increases and decreases in matched billed sales
State	Customer class	2019 TWh	2024 TWh	Change TWh	Change %
GA	Commercial	46.4	54.0	+7.6	+16.3%
GA	Residential	57.3	59.9	+2.6	+4.6%
GA	Industrial	32.1	32.4	+0.3	+1.0%
MS	Commercial	3.2	3.4	+0.2	+7.1%
MS	Residential	3.2	3.3	+0.1	+4.2%
AL	Commercial	16.6	16.4	-0.3	-1.8%
AL	Industrial	23.9	22.2	-1.6	-6.9%
FL	Industrial	1.9	0.1	-1.8	-92.9%
FL	Commercial	4.2	0.5	-3.7	-88.2%
FL	Residential	7.1	1.8	-5.3	-74.2%


Endpoint	Excluded MWh	Unmapped upper bound MWh	Coverage gate
2019	0.0	6,982.0	passed
2024	0.0	0.0	passed

Southwest billed sales

Billed sales through 2024. Net matched billed-sales change: +14.4 TWh.

Largest increases and decreases in matched billed sales
State	Customer class	2019 TWh	2024 TWh	Change TWh	Change %
AZ	Commercial	29.2	35.9	+6.7	+22.9%
AZ	Residential	34.5	40.2	+5.7	+16.5%
AZ	Industrial	13.7	14.2	+0.5	+4.0%
NM	Industrial	3.6	4.1	+0.4	+11.7%
NM	Residential	5.0	5.4	+0.4	+8.1%
NV	Commercial	0.1	0.1	-0.0	Not available
CA	Industrial	2.0	1.9	-0.2	-7.5%


Endpoint	Excluded MWh	Unmapped upper bound MWh	Coverage gate
2019	0.0	15,536.0	passed
2024	0.0	48,798.0	passed

Tennessee billed sales

Billed sales through 2024. Net matched billed-sales change: +5.8 TWh.

Largest increases and decreases in matched billed sales
State	Customer class	2019 TWh	2024 TWh	Change TWh	Change %
TN	Industrial	20.2	22.3	+2.1	+10.4%
TN	Residential	41.9	43.2	+1.3	+3.1%
KY	Industrial	5.0	6.2	+1.2	+23.9%
AL	Industrial	8.7	9.5	+0.8	+9.2%
AL	Residential	7.8	8.1	+0.4	+4.7%
VA	Industrial	0.1	0.1	-0.0	Not available
GA	Industrial	0.3	0.2	-0.1	Not available
MS	Commercial	4.2	4.1	-0.1	-2.6%
TN	Commercial	35.7	35.6	-0.1	-0.4%
MS	Residential	5.1	5.0	-0.2	-3.4%


Endpoint	Excluded MWh	Unmapped upper bound MWh	Coverage gate
2019	0.0	6,982.0	passed
2024	0.0	0.0	passed

Texas billed sales

Billed sales through 2024. Net matched billed-sales change: +75.7 TWh.

Largest increases and decreases in matched billed sales
State	Customer class	2019 TWh	2024 TWh	Change TWh	Change %
TX	Industrial	108.4	151.6	+43.2	+39.9%
TX	Commercial	123.1	146.3	+23.2	+18.8%
TX	Residential	136.5	146.0	+9.5	+7.0%
TX	Transportation	0.2	0.0	-0.2	Not available


Endpoint	Excluded MWh	Unmapped upper bound MWh	Coverage gate
2019	0.0	2,608.0	passed
2024	0.0	0.0	passed

CAISO billed sales

Billed sales through 2024. Net matched billed-sales change: -6.0 TWh.

Largest increases and decreases in matched billed sales
State	Customer class	2019 TWh	2024 TWh	Change TWh	Change %
CA	Commercial	91.3	91.7	+0.4	+0.5%
CA	Transportation	0.6	0.6	-0.0	-5.0%
CA	Industrial	40.4	37.2	-3.1	-7.8%
CA	Residential	69.4	66.2	-3.2	-4.7%


Endpoint	Excluded MWh	Unmapped upper bound MWh	Coverage gate
2019	0.0	12,928.0	passed
2024	0.0	48,798.0	passed

ERCOT billed sales

Billed sales through 2024. Net matched billed-sales change: +75.7 TWh.

Largest increases and decreases in matched billed sales
State	Customer class	2019 TWh	2024 TWh	Change TWh	Change %
TX	Industrial	108.4	151.6	+43.2	+39.9%
TX	Commercial	123.1	146.3	+23.2	+18.8%
TX	Residential	136.5	146.0	+9.5	+7.0%
TX	Transportation	0.2	0.0	-0.2	Not available


Endpoint	Excluded MWh	Unmapped upper bound MWh	Coverage gate
2019	0.0	2,608.0	passed
2024	0.0	0.0	passed

ISO New England billed sales

Billed sales through 2024. Net matched billed-sales change: -2.5 TWh.

Largest increases and decreases in matched billed sales
State	Customer class	2019 TWh	2024 TWh	Change TWh	Change %
MA	Residential	19.3	20.0	+0.7	+3.5%
CT	Residential	12.5	12.9	+0.4	+3.6%
NH	Residential	4.5	4.8	+0.3	+7.6%
VT	Residential	2.1	2.2	+0.1	+7.1%
RI	Residential	3.0	3.1	+0.1	+4.3%
ME	Industrial	2.4	2.0	-0.4	-16.9%
CT	Commercial	12.2	11.7	-0.5	-4.1%
CT	Industrial	3.1	2.6	-0.5	-16.8%
MA	Industrial	6.3	5.6	-0.7	-11.0%
MA	Commercial	25.3	23.5	-1.8	-7.3%


Endpoint	Excluded MWh	Unmapped upper bound MWh	Coverage gate
2019	0.0	7,640.0	passed
2024	0.0	13,763.0	passed

MISO billed sales

Billed sales through 2024. Net matched billed-sales change: -2.8 TWh.

Largest increases and decreases in matched billed sales
State	Customer class	2019 TWh	2024 TWh	Change TWh	Change %
IA	Industrial	22.8	26.1	+3.3	+14.3%
LA	Industrial	36.6	39.5	+2.9	+8.0%
ND	Commercial	4.3	6.7	+2.4	+55.0%
AR	Industrial	13.6	15.8	+2.2	+16.0%
TX	Industrial	9.3	10.4	+1.1	+12.3%
IL	Commercial	16.4	15.3	-1.2	-7.1%
MI	Industrial	28.9	27.3	-1.6	-5.4%
MN	Industrial	21.4	19.7	-1.7	-8.0%
KY	Industrial	7.7	5.3	-2.3	-30.3%
IN	Industrial	35.6	33.0	-2.6	-7.2%


Endpoint	Excluded MWh	Unmapped upper bound MWh	Coverage gate
2019	0.0	0.0	passed
2024	0.0	2,057.0	passed

NYISO billed sales

Billed sales through 2024. Net matched billed-sales change: -5.3 TWh.

Largest increases and decreases in matched billed sales
State	Customer class	2019 TWh	2024 TWh	Change TWh	Change %
NY	Residential	50.0	50.8	+0.8	+1.6%
NY	Transportation	2.8	2.8	-0.0	-1.3%
NJ	Commercial	0.3	0.0	-0.3	Not available
NY	Industrial	17.5	15.8	-1.7	-9.9%
NY	Commercial	75.1	71.0	-4.0	-5.4%


Endpoint	Excluded MWh	Unmapped upper bound MWh	Coverage gate
2019	0.0	7,428.0	passed
2024	0.0	6,574.0	passed

PJM billed sales

Billed sales through 2024. Net matched billed-sales change: +16.7 TWh.

Largest increases and decreases in matched billed sales
State	Customer class	2019 TWh	2024 TWh	Change TWh	Change %
VA	Commercial	53.5	78.3	+24.7	+46.2%
OH	Commercial	46.0	50.8	+4.8	+10.4%
NJ	Residential	28.6	29.7	+1.1	+3.8%
IL	Residential	27.7	28.5	+0.8	+2.7%
OH	Industrial	50.1	50.7	+0.6	+1.1%
VA	Residential	46.0	44.7	-1.4	-3.0%
PA	Industrial	50.4	48.8	-1.6	-3.2%
PA	Commercial	40.1	38.5	-1.6	-4.0%
IL	Commercial	32.8	30.0	-2.9	-8.7%
VA	Industrial	17.4	13.6	-3.8	-21.7%


Endpoint	Excluded MWh	Unmapped upper bound MWh	Coverage gate
2019	0.0	11,516.0	passed
2024	0.0	6,574.0	passed

EIA attributes Virginia’s electricity-sales growth largely to a concentration of data centers, as well as electric vehicle adoption and building electrification (EIA).

SPP billed sales

Billed sales through 2024. Net matched billed-sales change: +21.2 TWh.

Largest increases and decreases in matched billed sales
State	Customer class	2019 TWh	2024 TWh	Change TWh	Change %
OK	Commercial	19.5	24.7	+5.2	+26.6%
NM	Industrial	5.0	9.0	+4.0	+80.4%
ND	Industrial	7.0	10.8	+3.8	+54.8%
NE	Commercial	9.1	12.5	+3.4	+37.2%
ND	Commercial	2.7	4.6	+1.9	+70.1%
KS	Commercial	15.9	15.8	-0.1	-0.8%
LA	Commercial	2.4	2.2	-0.1	-6.2%
LA	Residential	3.1	2.8	-0.3	-8.8%
TX	Residential	8.7	7.7	-1.0	-11.5%
TX	Commercial	10.2	8.9	-1.3	-12.9%


Endpoint	Excluded MWh	Unmapped upper bound MWh	Coverage gate
2019	0.0	2,608.0	passed
2024	0.0	2,057.0	passed

By state

Billed sales through 2025. Each class cell shows 2019 TWh → 2025 TWh; signed change in TWh; percentage change. Percentages require a base of at least 0.5 TWh.

State	Residential	Commercial	Industrial	Transportation
AK	1.9 → 2.0; +0.1 TWh; +6.3%	2.6 → 2.7; +0.0 TWh; +0.6%	1.3 → 1.4; +0.2 TWh; +13.1%	0.0 → 0.0; +0.0 TWh; Not available
AL	32.4 → 33.5; +1.1 TWh; +3.3%	23.1 → 23.0; -0.1 TWh; -0.3%	32.6 → 32.7; +0.1 TWh; +0.4%	0.0 → 0.0; +0.0 TWh; Not available
AR	18.7 → 19.2; +0.5 TWh; +2.6%	11.9 → 11.9; -0.0 TWh; -0.4%	17.4 → 21.8; +4.4 TWh; +25.4%	0.0 → 0.0; -0.0 TWh; Not available
AZ	34.7 → 39.1; +4.3 TWh; +12.5%	29.4 → 37.5; +8.1 TWh; +27.6%	13.8 → 14.9; +1.2 TWh; +8.4%	0.0 → 0.0; -0.0 TWh; Not available
CA	87.5 → 81.9; -5.6 TWh; -6.4%	114.3 → 113.5; -0.8 TWh; -0.7%	47.8 → 41.8; -6.0 TWh; -12.6%	0.8 → 0.7; -0.1 TWh; -8.1%
CO	19.4 → 20.4; +1.0 TWh; +5.4%	21.1 → 20.8; -0.3 TWh; -1.3%	15.9 → 15.3; -0.6 TWh; -3.8%	0.1 → 0.1; -0.0 TWh; Not available
CT	12.5 → 13.4; +0.9 TWh; +6.9%	12.2 → 11.5; -0.7 TWh; -5.6%	3.1 → 2.6; -0.5 TWh; -16.6%	0.2 → 0.2; -0.0 TWh; Not available
DC	2.5 → 2.5; -0.1 TWh; -2.2%	8.0 → 7.2; -0.7 TWh; -9.2%	0.2 → 0.2; +0.0 TWh; Not available	0.3 → 0.3; -0.0 TWh; Not available
DE	5.0 → 5.3; +0.3 TWh; +6.5%	4.4 → 4.3; -0.1 TWh; -3.3%	2.0 → 2.0; -0.1 TWh; -3.4%	0.0 → 0.0; +0.0 TWh; Not available
FL	127.2 → 139.9; +12.7 TWh; +10.0%	96.6 → 100.6; +4.0 TWh; +4.1%	16.5 → 17.3; +0.8 TWh; +5.0%	0.1 → 0.1; -0.0 TWh; Not available
GA	59.3 → 63.4; +4.0 TWh; +6.8%	47.4 → 56.9; +9.5 TWh; +20.1%	32.4 → 33.1; +0.7 TWh; +2.2%	0.2 → 0.2; -0.0 TWh; Not available
HI	2.8 → 2.7; -0.0 TWh; -0.4%	3.1 → 2.8; -0.2 TWh; -7.9%	3.6 → 3.6; -0.1 TWh; -1.7%	0.0 → 0.0; +0.0 TWh; Not available
IA	14.5 → 15.1; +0.6 TWh; +4.4%	12.3 → 13.3; +1.0 TWh; +8.1%	24.2 → 30.1; +5.9 TWh; +24.3%	0.0 → 0.0; +0.0 TWh; Not available
ID	8.7 → 9.9; +1.2 TWh; +14.2%	6.4 → 7.0; +0.6 TWh; +9.1%	8.8 → 9.8; +1.0 TWh; +11.2%	0.0 → 0.0; +0.0 TWh; Not available
IL	45.2 → 46.6; +1.4 TWh; +3.1%	49.3 → 46.3; -2.9 TWh; -5.9%	43.3 → 41.9; -1.4 TWh; -3.2%	0.6 → 0.5; -0.0 TWh; -4.8%
IN	33.2 → 34.5; +1.2 TWh; +3.7%	23.5 → 25.5; +2.0 TWh; +8.5%	45.3 → 43.5; -1.9 TWh; -4.1%	0.0 → 0.0; +0.0 TWh; Not available
KS	13.6 → 14.2; +0.6 TWh; +4.2%	15.9 → 16.2; +0.3 TWh; +1.8%	11.6 → 11.6; -0.0 TWh; -0.3%	0.0 → 0.0; +0.0 TWh; Not available
KY	26.6 → 27.2; +0.7 TWh; +2.5%	19.6 → 20.6; +1.0 TWh; +4.9%	29.2 → 28.1; -1.1 TWh; -3.6%	0.0 → 0.0; +0.0 TWh; Not available
LA	31.0 → 31.8; +0.8 TWh; +2.7%	24.3 → 23.9; -0.4 TWh; -1.6%	37.8 → 42.3; +4.5 TWh; +11.8%	0.0 → 0.0; -0.0 TWh; Not available
MA	19.3 → 20.9; +1.6 TWh; +8.1%	25.3 → 24.6; -0.7 TWh; -2.9%	6.3 → 6.0; -0.4 TWh; -5.9%	0.3 → 0.3; -0.0 TWh; Not available
MD	27.5 → 28.0; +0.5 TWh; +1.8%	28.9 → 27.6; -1.3 TWh; -4.6%	3.7 → 3.5; -0.2 TWh; -6.3%	0.6 → 0.4; -0.2 TWh; -28.8%
ME	4.8 → 4.8; -0.0 TWh; -0.3%	4.1 → 4.0; -0.1 TWh; -2.9%	2.8 → 2.2; -0.6 TWh; -20.1%	0.0 → 0.0; +0.0 TWh; Not available
MI	33.5 → 34.5; +1.1 TWh; +3.1%	37.9 → 37.4; -0.4 TWh; -1.2%	29.9 → 28.1; -1.7 TWh; -5.8%	0.0 → 0.0; -0.0 TWh; Not available
MN	22.3 → 23.3; +1.0 TWh; +4.6%	22.9 → 23.2; +0.3 TWh; +1.2%	21.7 → 19.2; -2.5 TWh; -11.6%	0.0 → 0.0; -0.0 TWh; Not available
MO	35.7 → 36.6; +0.9 TWh; +2.6%	30.1 → 30.3; +0.2 TWh; +0.7%	13.0 → 13.1; +0.1 TWh; +0.8%	0.0 → 0.0; +0.0 TWh; Not available
MS	18.7 → 19.1; +0.4 TWh; +2.0%	14.2 → 14.3; +0.1 TWh; +0.7%	16.0 → 16.2; +0.2 TWh; +1.1%	0.0 → 0.0; +0.0 TWh; Not available
MT	5.3 → 5.8; +0.5 TWh; +9.3%	5.0 → 5.1; +0.2 TWh; +3.9%	5.1 → 4.4; -0.6 TWh; -12.5%	0.0 → 0.0; +0.0 TWh; Not available
NC	59.9 → 64.6; +4.7 TWh; +7.9%	49.2 → 50.2; +1.1 TWh; +2.2%	27.4 → 25.8; -1.6 TWh; -5.9%	0.0 → 0.0; -0.0 TWh; Not available
ND	5.1 → 5.1; +0.0 TWh; +0.4%	7.0 → 11.5; +4.5 TWh; +63.6%	9.4 → 13.7; +4.3 TWh; +45.6%	0.0 → 0.0; +0.0 TWh; Not available
NE	10.3 → 10.7; +0.4 TWh; +4.2%	9.5 → 14.7; +5.2 TWh; +55.3%	10.6 → 12.2; +1.6 TWh; +14.8%	0.0 → 0.0; +0.0 TWh; Not available
NH	4.5 → 5.0; +0.5 TWh; +12.0%	4.3 → 4.1; -0.1 TWh; -3.1%	1.9 → 1.9; -0.0 TWh; -0.8%	0.0 → 0.0; +0.0 TWh; Not available
NJ	28.6 → 30.1; +1.4 TWh; +5.0%	38.0 → 36.5; -1.5 TWh; -3.9%	7.0 → 6.1; -0.9 TWh; -12.9%	0.3 → 0.4; +0.1 TWh; Not available
NM	6.9 → 7.2; +0.4 TWh; +5.2%	9.0 → 9.3; +0.2 TWh; +2.5%	9.0 → 15.1; +6.1 TWh; +68.1%	0.0 → 0.0; +0.0 TWh; Not available
NV	12.9 → 13.9; +1.0 TWh; +8.1%	11.7 → 14.2; +2.5 TWh; +21.1%	12.4 → 11.8; -0.6 TWh; -5.2%	0.0 → 0.0; -0.0 TWh; Not available
NY	50.1 → 52.4; +2.3 TWh; +4.5%	75.1 → 71.9; -3.2 TWh; -4.3%	17.5 → 16.3; -1.3 TWh; -7.3%	2.8 → 2.9; +0.1 TWh; +3.9%
OH	52.2 → 54.0; +1.8 TWh; +3.4%	46.0 → 57.8; +11.7 TWh; +25.5%	50.2 → 50.1; -0.1 TWh; -0.2%	0.0 → 0.0; -0.0 TWh; Not available
OK	23.8 → 24.5; +0.7 TWh; +2.8%	20.1 → 27.7; +7.6 TWh; +37.8%	20.9 → 23.0; +2.1 TWh; +9.8%	0.0 → 0.0; +0.0 TWh; Not available
OR	19.3 → 19.8; +0.5 TWh; +2.6%	16.4 → 25.5; +9.1 TWh; +55.4%	14.7 → 16.2; +1.6 TWh; +10.6%	0.0 → 0.0; -0.0 TWh; Not available
PA	54.4 → 56.1; +1.7 TWh; +3.1%	40.1 → 40.2; +0.0 TWh; +0.0%	50.4 → 46.5; -3.9 TWh; -7.7%	0.6 → 0.5; -0.1 TWh; -13.1%
RI	3.0 → 3.1; +0.2 TWh; +5.1%	3.6 → 3.6; -0.0 TWh; -0.8%	0.7 → 0.6; -0.1 TWh; -9.7%	0.0 → 0.0; -0.0 TWh; Not available
SC	31.2 → 33.8; +2.6 TWh; +8.3%	22.2 → 27.0; +4.8 TWh; +21.8%	26.9 → 24.9; -2.0 TWh; -7.5%	0.0 → 0.0; +0.0 TWh; Not available
SD	5.1 → 5.3; +0.3 TWh; +5.8%	4.9 → 5.3; +0.4 TWh; +8.3%	2.9 → 3.2; +0.2 TWh; +8.5%	0.0 → 0.0; +0.0 TWh; Not available
TN	42.6 → 45.3; +2.7 TWh; +6.3%	36.2 → 36.5; +0.4 TWh; +1.0%	21.1 → 24.8; +3.7 TWh; +17.4%	0.0 → 0.0; +0.0 TWh; Not available
TX	155.5 → 170.9; +15.4 TWh; +9.9%	142.0 → 173.8; +31.8 TWh; +22.4%	131.7 → 175.0; +43.3 TWh; +32.9%	0.2 → 0.0; -0.2 TWh; Not available
UT	9.7 → 11.8; +2.0 TWh; +20.7%	11.9 → 14.7; +2.9 TWh; +24.0%	9.5 → 8.6; -0.9 TWh; -9.9%	0.1 → 0.1; +0.0 TWh; Not available
VA	46.7 → 47.2; +0.6 TWh; +1.2%	54.0 → 83.6; +29.6 TWh; +54.9%	17.6 → 13.5; -4.1 TWh; -23.1%	0.2 → 0.3; +0.1 TWh; Not available
VT	2.1 → 2.2; +0.1 TWh; +6.9%	1.9 → 2.0; +0.0 TWh; +2.3%	1.4 → 1.3; -0.1 TWh; -10.1%	0.0 → 0.0; +0.0 TWh; Not available
WA	36.5 → 39.0; +2.5 TWh; +6.8%	29.3 → 33.6; +4.4 TWh; +15.0%	25.2 → 18.3; -6.9 TWh; -27.3%	0.1 → 0.1; +0.0 TWh; Not available
WI	22.0 → 22.9; +0.9 TWh; +4.2%	23.5 → 23.8; +0.3 TWh; +1.2%	23.6 → 23.4; -0.2 TWh; -0.8%	0.0 → 0.0; +0.0 TWh; Not available
WV	11.2 → 11.2; +0.0 TWh; +0.1%	7.6 → 8.0; +0.5 TWh; +6.0%	14.5 → 14.5; -0.0 TWh; -0.2%	0.0 → 0.0; +0.0 TWh; Not available
WY	2.8 → 3.0; +0.1 TWh; +3.7%	3.6 → 5.7; +2.1 TWh; +58.9%	10.3 → 8.7; -1.6 TWh; -15.9%	0.0 → 0.0; +0.0 TWh; Not available

Methods and validation

Grid demand through 2025; billed sales through 2025; utility-to-BA attribution through 2024. Common daily cutoff: 2026-10-19. EIA-930 covers the lower 48 on Eastern-time days. BA demand includes losses and excludes behind-the-meter generation. Annual comparisons require every calendar day at both endpoints. YTD comparisons use identical calendar dates, excluding February 29. Incomplete territories do not fall back to earlier years. Footprint events recorded by EIA (BA activations and retirements), reviewed against the regional series, suppress the comparisons they affect; levels remain visible.

EIA-861 Bundled and Energy rows are retained; Delivery rows are dropped to prevent duplicate sales. State-sector totals must reconcile to annual EIA retail sales within 3%. Failed state-sector pairs are excluded at both endpoints. Unknown BA codes are never allocated. Their conservative upper bound includes all unmapped sales in every historically mapped state. Excluded plus unmapped sales must not exceed 2% of mapped sales at either endpoint. Percentages require a 2019 base of at least 0.5 TWh.

The Energy Factbook weather-adjusted estimate uses year, month and day-of-week effects, federal holidays and the day after Thanksgiving, December 24 and December 31, plus heating and cooling degree days and their squares. State weather weights are fixed at the selected reconciled utility-sales endpoint. CPC supplies population-weighted weather for 48 states; Maryland is explicitly used as the DC weather proxy. Normal weather is the average modeled response across 1991–2020, not the response at average degree days. February 29 uses normal-period leap years. Outliers beyond 40% of the centered 28-day median are excluded from fitting only. Negative marginal weather response triggers a linear refit; negative linear response rejects the estimate. Normal-period HDD and CDD are clamped at their fitting-sample maxima before computing normal responses. More than 2% of normal days clamped for either variable rejects the estimate. Physical response is checked over fitting support plus clamped normal support.

Weather signal must exceed the 99th percentile of 200 seeded whole-year placebo permutations on complete years with February 29 excluded. The latest complete year is held out, its level calibrated, and daily CV(RMSE) must be at most 6%. In-sample R² is informational. Linear and split-period specifications test sensitivity. Changes exceeding one percentage point are shown as a specification range, not a confidence interval. Every valid specification enters the ranking test, even below the display threshold. This model is not a forecast and does not attribute growth to individual technologies.

No public PJM weather-normalized annual energy found as of 2026-10-21.

2025 utility data do not yet reconcile with EIA's annual state totals. The failed state-sector pairs represent 9.65% of national retail sales, above the 1% endpoint threshold.


Territory	Status	In-sample R2	Holdout CV(RMSE) %	Placebo percentile	Primary specification	Days clamped (HDD/CDD %)	Gates not passed
California	weather-adjusted estimate	0.949	3.1	100.0	linear	0.100 / 0.046	None
Carolinas	observed-only	0.921	6.3	100.0	linear	0.201 / 0.137	holdout
Central	weather-adjusted estimate	0.947	4.0	100.0	linear	0.000 / 0.128	None
CAISO	weather-adjusted estimate	0.949	3.1	100.0	linear	0.100 / 0.046	None
ERCOT	weather-adjusted estimate	0.976	2.8	100.0	quadratic	0.000 / 0.009	None
Florida	weather-adjusted estimate	0.949	4.3	100.0	quadratic	0.228 / 0.155	None
ISO New England	weather-adjusted estimate	0.904	5.7	100.0	linear	0.110 / 0.055	None
Mid-Atlantic	weather-adjusted estimate	0.944	3.3	100.0	linear	0.073 / 0.055	None
Midwest	weather-adjusted estimate	0.943	3.0	100.0	linear	0.055 / 0.183	None
MISO	weather-adjusted estimate	0.944	2.9	100.0	linear	0.055 / 0.164	None
New England	weather-adjusted estimate	0.904	5.7	100.0	linear	0.110 / 0.055	None
Northwest	weather-adjusted estimate	0.922	3.1	100.0	linear	0.055 / 0.110	None
New York	weather-adjusted estimate	0.926	4.5	100.0	linear	0.082 / 0.091	None
NYISO	weather-adjusted estimate	0.926	4.5	100.0	linear	0.082 / 0.091	None
PJM	weather-adjusted estimate	0.944	3.3	100.0	linear	0.073 / 0.055	None
Southeast	weather-adjusted estimate	0.924	4.8	100.0	linear	0.173 / 0.110	None
Southwest	weather-adjusted estimate	0.976	3.5	100.0	linear	0.402 / 0.621	None
SPP	weather-adjusted estimate	0.947	4.0	100.0	linear	0.000 / 0.128	None
Tennessee	weather-adjusted estimate	0.955	3.5	100.0	quadratic	0.110 / 0.192	None
Texas	weather-adjusted estimate	0.976	2.8	100.0	quadratic	0.000 / 0.009	None
Lower 48	weather-adjusted estimate	0.970	2.2	100.0	linear	0.046 / 0.164	None


Territory	Fixed state weather weights	Fitting outlier dates
California	AZ: 0.0009%, CA: 99.9971%, NV: 0.0020%	None
Carolinas	GA: 0.0017%, NC: 60.9002%, SC: 39.0981%	2022-12-24, 2025-02-20, 2025-12-15
Central	AR: 4.8647%, CO: 0.0015%, IA: 1.3319%, KS: 15.6823%, LA: 2.3656%, MN: 0.3259%, MO: 10.6240%, MT: 0.3956%, ND: 6.2282%, NE: 12.8312%, NM: 5.2446%, OK: 26.1661%, SD: 2.6376%, TX: 11.3007%	2024-01-14
CAISO	AZ: 0.0011%, CA: 99.9964%, NV: 0.0025%	None
ERCOT	NM: 0.0000%, TX: 100.0000%	2019-03-04, 2021-02-12, 2021-02-13, 2021-02-14, 2022-02-04, 2022-12-23, 2024-01-15, 2024-01-16, 2025-02-19, 2025-02-20, 2025-02-21
Florida	FL: 100.0000%	2022-12-25, 2022-12-26, 2023-11-01, 2025-01-22, 2025-01-23, 2026-02-01, 2026-02-02
ISO New England	CT: 24.6185%, MA: 44.4809%, ME: 9.4388%, NH: 9.8235%, NY: 0.0513%, RI: 6.6734%, VT: 4.9135%	2021-06-08, 2021-06-28, 2021-06-29, 2021-06-30, 2025-06-23, 2025-06-24, 2025-06-25, 2026-05-20, 2026-06-12, 2026-07-02, 2026-07-03
Mid-Atlantic	DC: 1.3291%, DE: 1.4905%, IL: 11.5508%, IN: 2.7992%, KY: 2.9905%, MD: 7.7339%, MI: 0.5302%, NC: 0.6800%, NJ: 9.6300%, NY: 0.0106%, OH: 20.1420%, PA: 18.6163%, TN: 0.2432%, VA: 17.9305%, WV: 4.3231%	None
Midwest	AR: 5.4275%, IA: 7.5242%, IL: 6.5957%, IN: 11.3915%, KS: 0.0002%, KY: 5.7273%, LA: 13.0411%, MI: 13.8913%, MN: 9.3206%, MO: 7.2901%, MS: 3.1193%, ND: 1.9577%, OK: 0.4750%, SD: 0.5031%, TN: 0.0000%, TX: 3.6511%, VA: 0.0925%, WI: 9.9917%	None
MISO	AR: 5.8092%, IA: 8.0326%, IL: 7.1297%, IN: 12.3137%, KS: 0.0002%, KY: 1.2307%, LA: 14.0969%, MI: 15.0159%, MN: 10.0752%, MO: 5.5154%, MS: 3.3718%, ND: 2.1162%, OK: 0.0014%, SD: 0.5439%, TN: 0.0000%, TX: 3.9467%, WI: 10.8006%	None
New England	CT: 24.6185%, MA: 44.4809%, ME: 9.4388%, NH: 9.8235%, NY: 0.0513%, RI: 6.6734%, VT: 4.9135%	2021-06-08, 2021-06-28, 2021-06-29, 2021-06-30, 2025-06-23, 2025-06-24, 2025-06-25, 2026-05-20, 2026-06-12, 2026-07-02, 2026-07-03
Northwest	AZ: 0.1428%, CA: 0.2965%, CO: 16.3772%, ID: 7.5980%, KS: 0.0001%, MT: 4.1855%, ND: 0.0011%, NE: 0.4135%, NM: 0.3225%, NV: 11.6561%, OR: 17.1960%, SD: 0.9391%, UT: 9.9841%, WA: 25.9267%, WY: 4.9608%	None
New York	NJ: 0.0304%, NY: 99.9114%, PA: 0.0581%	2025-06-24, 2026-05-19, 2026-05-20
NYISO	NJ: 0.0304%, NY: 99.9114%, PA: 0.0581%	2025-06-24, 2026-05-19, 2026-05-20
PJM	DC: 1.3291%, DE: 1.4905%, IL: 11.5508%, IN: 2.7992%, KY: 2.9905%, MD: 7.7339%, MI: 0.5302%, NC: 0.6800%, NJ: 9.6300%, NY: 0.0106%, OH: 20.1420%, PA: 18.6163%, TN: 0.2432%, VA: 17.9305%, WV: 4.3231%	None
Southeast	AL: 28.2709%, FL: 1.1015%, GA: 65.3868%, MS: 5.2408%	2022-12-23, 2022-12-24
Southwest	AZ: 77.4659%, CA: 3.2691%, CO: 0.0001%, NM: 13.1873%, NV: 0.1767%, OK: 0.0006%, TX: 5.8683%, UT: 0.0320%	None
SPP	AR: 4.6436%, CO: 0.0015%, IA: 1.3375%, KS: 15.7482%, LA: 2.3755%, MN: 0.3273%, MO: 10.5208%, MT: 0.3973%, ND: 6.2544%, NE: 12.8851%, NM: 5.2666%, OK: 26.2454%, SD: 2.6487%, TX: 11.3482%	2024-01-14
Tennessee	AL: 15.2678%, GA: 2.2033%, KY: 7.8560%, MS: 9.8653%, NC: 0.5905%, TN: 63.8500%, VA: 0.3672%	2022-12-23, 2022-12-24, 2024-01-17, 2024-01-20, 2024-01-21, 2025-02-20, 2026-02-23, 2026-02-24
Texas	NM: 0.0000%, TX: 100.0000%	2019-03-04, 2021-02-12, 2021-02-13, 2021-02-14, 2022-02-04, 2022-12-23, 2024-01-15, 2024-01-16, 2025-02-19, 2025-02-20, 2025-02-21
Lower 48	AL: 2.2100%, AR: 1.2599%, AZ: 2.2938%, CA: 6.2044%, CO: 1.4353%, CT: 0.6906%, DC: 0.2561%, DE: 0.2872%, FL: 6.4412%, GA: 3.7876%, IA: 1.3870%, ID: 0.6658%, IL: 3.3640%, IN: 2.5053%, KS: 1.0418%, KY: 1.8788%, LA: 2.4078%, MA: 1.2478%, MD: 1.4902%, ME: 0.2864%, MI: 2.4995%, MN: 1.6302%, MO: 1.9639%, MS: 1.2293%, MT: 0.3931%, NC: 3.4569%, ND: 0.7517%, NE: 0.8886%, NH: 0.2756%, NJ: 1.8567%, NM: 0.7650%, NV: 1.0268%, NY: 3.5476%, OH: 3.8811%, OK: 1.8201%, OR: 1.5069%, PA: 3.5892%, RI: 0.1872%, SC: 2.1200%, SD: 0.3443%, TN: 2.5998%, TX: 12.7622%, UT: 0.8759%, VA: 3.4856%, VT: 0.1378%, WA: 2.2720%, WI: 1.7244%, WV: 0.8330%, WY: 0.4347%	None

A statistical screen flagged 50 step changes in individual balancing-authority demand (25 large enough to matter for a displayed region). We reviewed them against year-over-year data: at the scale of one balancing authority, weather, economic swings and real new load produce steps of the same size as a boundary change, so the screen is used to prompt review and does not suppress comparisons.

Reviewed footprint ledger events
Date	BA	Event	Evidence note
2021-09-01	AEC	retirement	SE region Aug to Sep 2021 mean daily demand 776.7 to 665.9 GWh (-14.3%) versus Aug to Sep 2020 765.1 to 659.0 (-13.9%); SOCO equals SE after the date; AEC load absorbed within SE.
2026-04-01	BHBA	activation	NW Mar to Apr 2026 974 to 907 GWh/day (-6.9%) versus 2025 972 to 925 (-4.8%); SWPP Mar/Apr 2026 versus 2025 +8%/+5% with no step; all moved BAs are in NW and none is a displayed ISO code, so no displayed footprint changes.
2020-01-08	NSB	retirement	FLA continuous (545.9 to 558.0 GWh/day Dec to Jan); within FLA.
2026-04-01	SWPW	activation	NW Mar to Apr 2026 974 to 907 GWh/day (-6.9%) versus 2025 972 to 925 (-4.8%); SWPP Mar/Apr 2026 versus 2025 +8%/+5% with no step; all moved BAs are in NW and none is a displayed ISO code, so no displayed footprint changes.
2026-04-01	WACM	retirement	NW Mar to Apr 2026 974 to 907 GWh/day (-6.9%) versus 2025 972 to 925 (-4.8%); SWPP Mar/Apr 2026 versus 2025 +8%/+5% with no step; all moved BAs are in NW and none is a displayed ISO code, so no displayed footprint changes.
2026-04-01	WAUW	retirement	NW Mar to Apr 2026 974 to 907 GWh/day (-6.9%) versus 2025 972 to 925 (-4.8%); SWPP Mar/Apr 2026 versus 2025 +8%/+5% with no step; all moved BAs are in NW and none is a displayed ISO code, so no displayed footprint changes.

Sources: EIA-930, EIA-861, EIA retail sales, NOAA CPC.

Frequently asked questions

Which U.S. region’s electricity demand is growing fastest?

Among complete, comparable regions, Texas grew 27.4% from 2019 to 2025.

Is PJM’s load growth real or just weather?

Observed grid demand and the weather-adjusted estimate are reported separately. A weather estimate is withheld whenever its validation or coverage gates fail.

Why is Virginia’s electricity use growing?

EIA attributes Virginia’s electricity-sales growth largely to a concentration of data centers, as well as electric vehicle adoption and building electrification. EIA source

Is grid demand the same as electricity sales?

No. Grid demand includes losses; billed sales measure deliveries to final customers. The series are not subtracted from one another.