EV Policy by Country
Policy inventory verified 2026-08-31 · Share periods vary by official series · Updated September 01, 2026
Electric cars were 24% of new-car sales worldwide in the first half of 2026: above 60% in China, above 30% in the European Union, and about 7% in the United States (IEA definition, which includes plug-in hybrids). This page helps explain differences like these by cataloging, from primary sources, what each of ten major car markets actually does about electric vehicles: every purchase subsidy, company-car tax break, registration-tax difference, fleet standard, sales mandate and import tariff in force, each dated and linked to the document behind it, beside each market's own official battery-electric share of new sales.
The record itself is the interesting part. The United States ended all three federal purchase credits for vehicles acquired after September 30, 2025, and admits a Chinese-built EV only over a stacked 127.5% tariff. Norway, where battery-electric cars are 96% of new passenger cars, now charges electric cars a higher daily circulation tax than petrol cars (NOK 9.16 against 6.52) and has enacted the phase-out of its VAT exemption. And the largest policy differences are the least discussed: taxes are roughly half the pump price of gasoline across Europe, against one-seventh in the United States, and company-car and benefit-in-kind taxation, the category this inventory found hardest to verify anywhere, is excluded even from the IEA's own headline support metric.
What this page deliberately does not do: the shares carry their own denominators and are not directly comparable across markets, and observed differences in EV share cannot be separated into preference, policy, price, supply, product mix, geography and infrastructure with the available data. The page documents the record and leaves that judgment to the reader.
This inventory cannot produce a policy-adjusted counterfactual share, rank markets by how much policy they have, or turn its non-random coverage into a causal account. The U.S. series records a sharp descriptive break, but this page treats it as confounded by simultaneous regulatory, supply, financing, price and inventory changes.
Definitions: on this page, EV means BEV only and excludes plug-in hybrids; IEA "electric cars" include PHEVs; /ev-sales/ counts plug-in light-duty vehicles, including pickups and SUVs. These definitions are not interchangeable.
2. Six kinds of EV policy in ten markets
Rows are alphabetical. A market enters only when all six categories are resolved from primary sources, including a sourced negative. Status, challenge and verification are separate fields. "Supranational" identifies an EU or EEA policy applying to the country; there is no European Union row.
| Market | Purchase subsidy | Company car / BIK | Registration / circulation tax | Fleet CO2 / efficiency standard | ZEV sales mandate | Import tariff / quota | Official BEV share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Australia | expired · none · primary-source No consumer grant in force; the last state rebate closed 2025-05-10. Primary source | in-force · none · primary-source Eligible BEV and FCEV car benefits are FBT-exempt; PHEVs were removed 2025-04-01. Primary source | in-force · none · primary-source 33% Luxury Car Tax above AUD 91,661 for fuel-efficient cars versus AUD 80,809 otherwise in 2026-27; subnational rules vary. Primary source | in-force · none · primary-source Mandatory NVES from 2025-07-01, with mass-adjusted fleet CO2 limits and banking and trading. Primary source | absent · none · primary-source No ZEV sales quota; NVES is a fleet CO2 standard, not a technology mandate. Primary source | in-force · none · primary-source Eligible new EVs below the fuel-efficient-car limit are duty-free; no China-specific vehicle duty. Primary source |
12.0%
zero-emission vehicles, including fuel-cell of light vehicles NVES Regulator |
| Canada | in-force · none · primary-source EVAP pays up to CAD 5,000 for BEV/FCEV and CAD 2,500 for PHEV in 2026. Primary source | in-force · none · primary-source No EV-specific BIK rate; eligible ZEVs receive a higher 2026 CCA capital-cost ceiling. Primary source | in-force · none · primary-source Federal green levy reaches CAD 4,000 at 16 L/100 km; provincial EV charges vary. Primary source | in-force · none · primary-source Federal light-vehicle fleet-average CO2-equivalent standards remain in force. Primary source | in-force · none · primary-source 20% ZEV requirement for MY2026 remains in force; repeal is proposed, not final. Primary source | in-force · none · primary-source 49,000-unit year-one permit quota from 2026-03-01 at the 6.1% MFN rate. Primary source |
7.5%
battery-electric vehicles of all new motor vehicles Statistics Canada table 20-10-0025-01 |
| Denmark | absent · none · primary-source No national passenger-EV purchase grant. Primary source | in-force · none · primary-source No EV-specific BIK rate; tax-base and charging rules provide indirect treatment. Primary source | in-force · none · primary-source 40% of ordinary registration tax in 2026, with a DKK 161,300 deduction. Primary source | in-force · none · primary-source EU fleet CO2 standard, including 2025 to 2027 averaging. Primary source | absent · none · primary-source No national ZEV sales quota. Primary source | in-force · both · primary-source EU 10% MFN plus 7.8% to 35.3% China-BEV countervailing duties. Primary source |
79.5%
battery-electric passenger cars of new passenger cars Statistics Denmark BIL51 |
| France | in-force · none · primary-source CEE Coup de pouce for eligible BEVs; social leasing reopened 2026-07-16. Primary source | in-force · none · primary-source 70% BIK abatement capped at EUR 4,582 per year through 2027-12-31. Primary source | in-force · none · primary-source BEVs avoid the 2026 CO2 and mass maluses; regional registration treatment varies. Primary source | in-force · none · primary-source EU fleet CO2 standard with 2025 to 2027 averaging. Primary source | absent · none · primary-source No ZEV sales mandate; the fleet acquisition quota also admits PHEVs. Primary source | in-force · both · primary-source EU 10% MFN plus 7.8% to 35.3% China-BEV countervailing duties. Primary source |
35.1%
battery-electric passenger cars of new passenger cars SDES, Motorisations des véhicules légers neufs |
| Germany | in-force · none · primary-source Income-tested EUR 3,000 to EUR 6,000 for BEV/FCEV through 2029-12-31. Primary source | in-force · none · primary-source Qualifying BEVs use one quarter of list price, effectively 0.25% per month. Primary source | in-force · none · primary-source Ten-year BEV Kfz-Steuer exemption for first registrations through 2030. Primary source | in-force · none · primary-source EU fleet CO2 standard with 2025 to 2027 averaging. Primary source | absent · none · primary-source No ZEV sales mandate; a separate public-procurement quota exists. Primary source | in-force · both · primary-source EU 10% MFN plus 7.8% to 35.3% China-BEV countervailing duties. Primary source |
29.3%
battery-electric passenger cars of new passenger cars Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt press release 32/2026 |
| Netherlands | absent · none · primary-source No private purchase grant; SEPP is closed. Primary source | in-force · none · primary-source 18% bijtelling on the first EUR 30,000 for zero-emission cars versus 22% standard. Primary source | in-force · none · primary-source EUR 687 fixed BPM for a BEV in 2026; 30% MRB discount through 2028. Primary source | in-force · none · primary-source EU fleet CO2 standard with 2025 to 2027 averaging. Primary source | absent · none · primary-source No national ZEV sales quota. Primary source | in-force · both · primary-source EU 10% MFN plus 7.8% to 35.3% China-BEV countervailing duties. Primary source |
41.5%
battery-electric passenger cars of new passenger cars CBS StatLine 85898NED |
| Norway | in-force · none · primary-source 25% VAT exemption on the first NOK 300,000, worth up to NOK 75,000. Under the December 2025 budget settlement the threshold falls to NOK 150,000 in 2027 and the exemption ends in 2028 (enacted, forward-dated). Primary source | repealed · none · primary-source EV BIK advantage repealed from income year 2023. Primary source | in-force · none · primary-source BEVs avoid combustion-only acquisition components but pay a NOK 9.16/day circulation charge from 2026-03-01. Primary source | in-force · none · primary-source EEA implementation of the EU fleet CO2 standard. Primary source | absent · none · primary-source No ZEV sales mandate; the 2025 target was a policy goal. Primary source | absent · none · primary-source Zero MFN vehicle tariff; no China-specific vehicle duty. Primary source |
96.00%
new battery-electric passenger cars of new passenger cars Statistics Norway table 12906 |
| Sweden | in-force · none · primary-source Means- and geography-tested SEK 46,800 over 36 months, plus up to SEK 18,000. Primary source | in-force · none · primary-source SEK 350,000 BEV valuation reduction, capped at 50% of price. Primary source | in-force · none · primary-source SEK 360 annual base for a zero-emission car; combustion cars add CO2 and malus charges. Primary source | in-force · none · primary-source EU fleet CO2 standard with 2025 to 2027 averaging. Primary source | absent · none · primary-source No national ZEV sales quota in the complete official policy inventory. Primary source | in-force · both · primary-source EU 10% MFN plus 7.8% to 35.3% China-BEV countervailing duties. Primary source |
33.8%
new passenger cars using electricity of new passenger cars Statistics Sweden TK1001A |
| United Kingdom | in-force · none · primary-source Up to GBP 3,750 for eligible new zero-emission cars, extended to 2030. Primary source | in-force · none · primary-source 4% BIK for 0 g/km company cars in 2026-27 versus up to 37%. Primary source | in-force · none · primary-source GBP 10 first-year VED at 0 g/km; GBP 200 from year two for every powertrain. Primary source | in-force · none · primary-source Non-Zero-Emission Car CO2 Trading Scheme under SI 2023/1394. Primary source | in-force · none · primary-source 33% ZEV car target for 2026; review consultation changes nothing yet. Primary source | in-force · none · primary-source 10% third-country duty; no China-specific vehicle trade-remedy duty. Primary source |
21.8%
ZEV numerator, includes fuel-cell of new passenger cars Department for Transport VEH1153b |
| United States | repealed · none · primary-source Federal consumer credits ended 2025-09-30; state status resolved 51/51. Primary source | absent · none · primary-source No federal EV-specific company-car valuation rule. Primary source | in-force · none · primary-source Federal gas-guzzler tax plus complete 51/51 state fee inventory: 41 in force, 1 future, 9 none. Primary source | in-force · under-judicial-challenge · primary-source EPA GHG standards repealed; CAFE remains with a USD 0.00 civil penalty; reset proposed only. Primary source | in-force · under-judicial-challenge · primary-source No federal mandate; complete 51/51 state-law inventory with 13 ACC II adopters and Minnesota caveat. Primary source | in-force · none · primary-source 127.5% total on a Chinese-built BEV: 2.5% MFN + 100% Section 301 + 25% Section 232. Primary source |
6.07%
battery-electric light-duty vehicles of light-duty vehicles Energy Factbook computation from Argonne data in ev_sales_monthly |
Indiana source footnote and Minnesota caveat
Indiana's negative rests on four named primary-source legs: Maine DEP's January 2026 statutory enumeration of ACC II adopters under 38 M.R.S. 585-D; the EPA-approved 326 IAC schedule at 40 CFR 52 subpart P, which contains no California standards; IDEM's own air rulemaking docket, which contains none; and 42 U.S.C. 7543(a) preemption together with 7507, which leave section 177 adoption as the lawful route to a state ZEV mandate. This is reasoning across documents, not a single official Indiana schedule.
Minnesota shows why the ACC II complement alone is unsafe: it is absent from that list but Minn. R. 7023.0300 incorporates California Code of Regulations title 13 section 1962.2. The rule is not enforceable after model year 2025; repeal was noticed 2026-06-29, the comment period closed 2026-08-28, and the final repeal date was still undetermined on 2026-08-31.
U.S. subnational completeness: fees 51/51, purchase-incentive status 51/51, and ZEV status 51/51. The 13 ACC II state policies are named in the inventory data record: California Board Resolution 26-3; Colorado 5 CCR 1001-24 Regulation 20; Delaware 7 DE Admin. Code 1140; District of Columbia 20 DCMR chapter 9; Maryland Executive Order 01.01.2025.10; Massachusetts 310 CMR 7.40; New Jersey N.J.A.C. 7:27-29A; New Mexico 20.2.91 NMAC; New York 6 NYCRR Parts 200 and 218; Oregon's 2025-06-13 DEQ memorandum; Rhode Island 250-RICR-120-05-37; Vermont Executive Order 04-25; and Washington Ecology Publication 25-14-036.
3. Road-fuel taxation, July 2026
Tax made up 14.60% of the U.S. pump price of gasoline in July 2026, against 49.83% for the EU-27 weighted average, 51.46% in the United Kingdom and a range of 30.16% (Sweden) to 56.25% (Malta) across sixteen EU member states.
This is general road-fuel taxation, a tax on a substitute good. It is not an EV policy and does not appear in the table above. A higher pump price raises the gasoline expenditure a driver avoids by not buying gasoline; the tax component shown here is the part of the price that is policy. This table does not measure per-kilometre or net EV savings, which would require electricity prices and vehicle efficiency, and this section makes no claim about how fuel taxation affects EV shares.
| Market | Retail | Retail USD/L | Tax USD/L | Ex-tax USD/L | Tax share | Period basis | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil | R$ 6.5732/L | 1.29 | 0.44 | 0.85 | 34.0% | day-weighted mean of 5 ANP survey weeks | ANP weekly price survey; Convênio ICMS 112/2025 (DOU 2025-09-08); Petrobras composition · ANP weekly survey (price) |
| Canada | CAD 1.755/L | 1.24 | 0.22 | 1.02 | 17.8% | StatCan published monthly average | StatCan 18-10-0001-01; NRCan levies table; Bill C-30 · StatCan 18-10-0001-01 (price) |
| India (Delhi) | INR 102.12/L | 1.07 | 0.30 | 0.77 | 27.9% | dated build-up as on 2026-07-01; pump price unchanged all 31 days | PPAC Ready Reckoner Table 8.4 · PPAC price build-up |
| Japan | 169.98 JPY/L | 1.05 | 0.29 | 0.76 | 27.6% | mean of 4 ANRE weekly surveys | METI/ANRE petroleum price survey; NTA rate notice · NTA excise rate notice |
| United Kingdom | 152.19 p/L | 2.04 | 1.05 | 0.99 | 51.5% | mean of 4 DESNZ Monday observations | DESNZ weekly road fuel prices; HMRC hydrocarbon oils rates · HMRC hydrocarbon oils rates |
| United States | $3.932/gal | 1.04 | 0.15 | 0.89 | 14.6% | EIA published monthly average | EIA series EMM_EPMR_PTE_NUS_DPG; EIA fueltaxes.xlsx July 2026 (revised) · EIA fueltaxes.xlsx |
| EU-27 weighted average | EUR 1.8784/L | 2.14 | 1.07 | 1.08 | 49.8% | mean of 4 Weekly Oil Bulletin Monday observations (2026-07-06 to 27) | EU Weekly Oil Bulletin, Euro-super 95 |
This cross-market view is Europe-weighted: sixteen of its twenty-three markets are EU member states. China, Norway, Australia, New Zealand and Korea are absent because no tax-component source was verified for them.
Per-market notes: Brazil: Gross statutory content. A R$0.44/L gasolina-A subvention (MP 1.358/2026) offsets R$0.308 per blended litre; net share 29.30%. Price is the E30 blend. Canada: Our volume-weighted construction, band 17.5-17.8%; no official national tax average exists. Federal excise is $0.00 from 2026-04-20 to 2026-09-07 under Bill C-30, reverting to $0.10/L on 2026-09-08. India (Delhi): Delhi only; state VAT ranges from 1% (Andaman) to 35.2% (Telangana). Central excise INR 11.90/L after the 2026-03-27 cut, which PIB states was not passed to the pump. Japan: Broad measure incl. the 2.8 JPY/L petroleum and coal tax; excise-plus-consumption-tax-only is 25.98%. The provisional excise was abolished 2025-12-31 (53.8 to 28.7 JPY/L). Pump held near 170 JPY/L by a refiner subsidy, ~26 JPY/L effect at 2026-08-24. United Kingdom: Duty 52.95p/L unchanged since 2022-03-23; the scheduled 2026-09-01 step was cancelled 2026-05-20, holding through year end. VAT-registered fleet buyers reclaim VAT; their tax content is 34.79%. United States: Volume-weighted state average (2024 SEDS weights); EIA's own unweighted basis gives 13.27%. Federal 18.4 c/gal unchanged since 1993. Local option taxes excluded, so slightly understated.
Sixteen EU member states, Euro-super 95, July 2026 (EUR/litre, with tax / tax / share)
| Member state | With tax | Without tax | Tax | Tax share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austria | 1.7888 | 0.8844 | 0.9044 | 50.56% |
| Belgium | 1.8210 | 0.9048 | 0.9162 | 50.31% |
| Denmark | 2.4086 | 1.2102 | 1.1984 | 49.75% |
| Finland | 2.1524 | 0.9927 | 1.1597 | 53.88% |
| France | 1.9880 | 0.9665 | 1.0215 | 51.39% |
| Germany | 2.1355 | 0.9918 | 1.1437 | 53.55% |
| Greece | 1.9808 | 0.8821 | 1.0987 | 55.47% |
| Ireland | 1.7300 | 0.8023 | 0.9277 | 53.62% |
| Italy | 1.8862 | 0.8732 | 1.0130 | 53.71% |
| Luxembourg | 1.7085 | 0.8911 | 0.8174 | 47.84% |
| Malta | 1.3400 | 0.5862 | 0.7538 | 56.25% |
| Netherlands | 2.3169 | 1.0668 | 1.2501 | 53.96% |
| Poland | 1.6438 | 0.9149 | 0.7289 | 44.34% |
| Portugal | 1.9432 | 0.9675 | 0.9757 | 50.21% |
| Spain | 1.5714 | 0.9789 | 0.5925 | 37.70% |
| Sweden | 1.4011 | 0.9786 | 0.4225 | 30.16% |
Source: EU Weekly Oil Bulletin history workbook, tax-inclusive and tax-exclusive sheets, mean of the four July 2026 Monday bulletins. Non-euro members are converted by the Bulletin's own weekly rates.
- Only the United States (EIA) and Canada (StatCan) figures are officially published monthly averages. The UK, Japan and European figures are unweighted means of the weekly official observations, our construction; Brazil is day-weighted across five survey weeks; India is a dated single build-up, valid because the Delhi pump price was unchanged on every day of the month.
- The Oil Bulletin's July mean omits 1-5 July, which fall in the bulletin dated 2026-06-29.
- Where the tax is a fixed per-litre excise, the tax share falls mechanically when prices rise. July 2026 was a high-price month nearly everywhere (US regular +25.8% year on year), so no share here should be read against a share computed in a low-price month.
- Three tax-exclusive figures are not market prices: Japan's pump price is held near 170 JPY/L by a refiner subsidy, India's is an administered price below the oil companies' stated cost of supply, and Brazil's carries the R$0.44/L subvention.
- FX: monthly-average central-bank rates matched to monthly-average prices (BoE, BoC, BCB PTAX, Fed G.5, RBI reference, ECB reference). Product grades differ slightly by market (US regular all formulations, Europe Euro-super 95, UK ULSP, Brazil E30 blend, India unbranded blended petrol, Japan regular cash).
- Tax-exclusive values are calculated residuals (retail minus tax component), not quoted prices; the underlying tax-exclusive observations for Europe come directly from the Oil Bulletin's own without-taxes sheet.
Rate changes 2025-2026 behind these figures
- Japan. Provisional gasoline excise abolished effective 2025-12-31: 53.8 to 28.7 JPY/L. The diesel provisional rate followed on 2026-04-01. (December 2025 amendment to the Act on Special Measures Concerning Taxation, NTA rate notice)
- Canada. Federal gasoline excise set to $0.00 for 2026-04-20 through 2026-09-07, reverting to $0.10/L on 2026-09-08. The federal consumer carbon charge (14.31 c/L) was abolished 2025-04-01; BC's carbon tax (~17 c/L) also ended 2025-04-01. (Bill C-30, S.C. 2026 c. 22 s. 11; SOR/2025-107; BC Bill 8-2025)
- United Kingdom. Duty held at 52.95 p/L: the 1 ppl rise scheduled for 2026-09-01 was cancelled on 2026-05-20, with legislative defaults of 55.95 on 2027-01-01 and 57.95 on 2027-03-01 unless Budget 2026 intervenes. (HMRC hydrocarbon oils rates)
- Brazil. ICMS ad rem on gasoline rose R$1.47 to R$1.57/L effective 2026-01-01; mandatory ethanol content rose to 30% on 2025-08-01; CIDE reinstated at R$0.10/L on 2026-05-01 with an identical PIS/COFINS cut, leaving the federal total unchanged at R$0.8925/L. (Convênio ICMS 112/2025 (DOU 2025-09-08); Resolução CNPE 9/2025)
- India. Central excise on petrol cut INR 10/L on 2026-03-27 (SAED 13.00 to 3.00), not passed to the pump per PIB; it offset oil-company under-recoveries of about INR 26/L. (PIB Release 2245970)
- Sweden. A 2.40 SEK/L CO2-tax cut effective 2026-07-01 through 2026-11-30 took combined energy-plus-CO2 tax to 1,570 SEK/1,000 L, roughly 69% below its level eighteen months earlier; this is why Sweden's July share is 30.2%. (Swedish budget measure)
- Spain. On 2026-07-01 fuel VAT was restored from 10% to 21% and the hydrocarbon tax set to 322.69 EUR/1,000 L, with relief unwinding through September. (Real Decreto-ley 18/2026, BOE-A-2026-14112)
All figures July 2026, verified 2026-09-01. Full sourcing, FX bases and the two-stage verification record are in the repository research file.
4. Dated policy changes and subsequent sales observations
This fixed corpus is non-exhaustive and non-random. Selection occurred after outcomes were already available, and the research sought subsidy removals, so unchanged markets are absent by construction. The rows are ungrouped and chronological. "Official" below describes the source series, not an estimate of policy effect.
| Market | Policy | Announcement | Effective | Notice / pull-forward | Outcome definition and denominator | Series; official? | Concurrent changes | Policies surviving | Known confounders | Verification and limit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denmark | Full registration-tax exemption phased out | 2015-10-09 | 2016-01-01 | About 3 months; high pull-forward exposure | BEV share of new registrations: 2.08% in 2015, 0.57% in 2016, 0.31% in 2017 | Statistics Denmark; yes | Tax phase-in | Other ownership and use-tax treatment | Asplund et al. covers Tesla Model S only; surge and trough offset over its window | Primary series plus published study. This observation is neither a counterfactual nor an estimated effect. |
| United Kingdom | Plug-in Car Grant closed | 2022-06-14 | 2022-06-14 | 0 days | BEV share of new cars: 11.4% in 2021; 16.2% in 2022 | DfT; yes | None identified in brief | Company-car BIK; later ZEV mandate | Annual window and changing model supply | Primary series. This observation is neither a counterfactual nor an estimated effect. |
| Sweden | Klimatbonus ended for new orders | 2022-11-08 | 2022-11-08 | 0 days for orders; payments continued 17 months | BEV share of new passenger cars: 32.1% in 2022, 37.8% in 2023, 34.2% in 2024 | SCB; yes | Payment tail through 2024-03-31 | Company-car and annual-tax treatment | Aggregate series masks private-leasing and income effects | Primary series; distributional study separate. This observation is neither a counterfactual nor an estimated effect. |
| China | National NEV purchase subsidy ended | About 12 months' notice | 2022-12-31 | 12 months; pull-forward possible | NEV sales growth continued through 2023 | IEA synthesis; not an official statistical series | Purchase-tax exemption continued | Purchase-tax exemption and local measures | Prices, supply, regulation and macro demand | IEA report, CC BY 4.0. This observation is neither a counterfactual nor an estimated effect. |
| Germany | PHEV eligibility ended and BEV rate cut | Exact date not stated in brief | 2023-01-01 | About 6 weeks; pull-forward exposed | December 2022 to January 2023 BEV share change: -23.1 percentage points | KBA; yes | PHEVs excluded and BEV rate changed together | Company-car treatment; EU fleet standard | Seasonality, model supply and registration timing | Primary series. This observation is neither a counterfactual nor an estimated effect. |
| Norway | VAT exemption capped at NOK 500,000 | About 7 months' notice | 2023-01-01 | High pull-forward exposure | January volume -76.6%; BEV share 66.5% | OFV registrations; no, industry-owned | Combustion registration taxes also changed | Large combustion-tax differential | December registration pull-forward | Registration series. This observation is neither a counterfactual nor an estimated effect. |
| Germany | Commercial buyers excluded from Umweltbonus | Exact date not stated in brief | 2023-09-01 | Not stated; pull-forward possible | BEV registrations: 86,649 and 31.7% in August; 31,714 and 14.1% in September | KBA; yes | Private-buyer grant remained | Private grant, company-car tax, EU fleet standard | Commercial/private mix and month timing | Primary series. This observation is neither a counterfactual nor an estimated effect. |
| Germany | Umweltbonus terminated | 2023-12-16 | 2023-12-17 | 1 day; little announced pull-forward | BEV share of new cars: 18.4% in 2023; 13.5% in 2024 | KBA; yes | No direct concurrent removal stated | Company-car tax and EU fleet standard | Supply, prices, interest rates and EU compliance timing | Primary series; no termination-effect study. This observation is neither a counterfactual nor an estimated effect. |
| New Zealand | Clean Car Discount feebate ended | About 4 weeks' notice | 2023-12-31 | High pull-forward exposure | New passenger BEV+PHEV share: 19.1% in 2023; 7.3% in 2024. December 2023 units 4,298; January 2024 units 433 | NZTA register; yes | Road-user-charge exemption ended 2024-04-01; standard weakened | Clean Vehicle Standard remained | Road-user charge, standard change and December pull-forward | Primary series. This observation is neither a counterfactual nor an estimated effect. |
| France | Bonus écologique cut | About 1 month's notice | 2025-01-01 | Short notice; some pull-forward possible | BEV registrations +3.2% year on year in January 2025; PHEV -53% | Avere-France; no | PHEV weight malus changed | Company-car, tax and EU fleet policies | One-month reading and powertrain-specific tax change | Industry series. This observation is neither a counterfactual nor an estimated effect. |
| Netherlands | SEPP purchase subsidy ended | Programme end known about 1 year ahead | 2025-01-01 | Long notice; pull-forward possible | BEV share of new passenger cars: 34.6% in 2024; 40.2% in 2025 | CBS; yes | Full BPM exemption also ended | MRB discount and company-car treatment | Two policies changed together | Primary series. This observation is neither a counterfactual nor an estimated effect. |
| Netherlands | Full BPM exemption ended | Programme end known about 1 year ahead | 2025-01-01 | Long notice; pull-forward possible | BEV share of new passenger cars: 34.6% in 2024; 40.2% in 2025 | CBS; yes | SEPP also ended | MRB discount and company-car treatment | Two policies changed together | Primary series. This observation is neither a counterfactual nor an estimated effect. |
| China | Purchase-tax exemption converted to half relief | About 2.5 years' notice | 2026-01-01 | Long notice; pull-forward possible | Total car sales -20% year on year in 2026 Q1 while EV share was maintained; April share above 60% | IEA synthesis; not an official statistical series | Trade-in support from 2026-01-01 | Half purchase-tax relief and other industrial measures | Macroeconomic decline, price competition and exports | IEA report, CC BY 4.0. This observation is neither a counterfactual nor an estimated effect. |
| Norway | VAT threshold cut to NOK 300,000 | About 2 to 3 months' notice | 2026-01-01 | High pull-forward exposure | January volume -76.7%; BEV share 94.0% | OFV registrations; no, industry-owned | Circulation-tax EV malus followed 2026-03-01 | Acquisition-tax differential | December 2025 registrations +157.7% year on year | Registration series. This observation is neither a counterfactual nor an estimated effect. |
The Denmark model result is deliberately narrow. Asplund, Jinkins, Lutz and Paizs estimate Tesla Model S registrations only: 1,965 actual over the study period versus 1,858 to 2,008 under their no-tax-change counterfactual. That model-specific timing result cannot be generalised to Danish EV demand, and this page draws no market-wide level-effect conclusion.
5. What different evidence can and cannot say about Chinese state support
State support was central to creating China's EV industry, supply chain and scale. The total of current support has not been quantified: CSIS and the OECD MAGIC database exclude the battery industry, and no source in the brief attempts a complete total. The evidence below therefore remains separated by object, denominator, period, scope, method and exclusions.
| Evidence | Object measured | Denominator | Period | Scope | Method | Exclusions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSIS: USD 230.9bn | Selected cumulative EV support | Total and a separate USD 4,800 per-vehicle estimate | 2009 to 2023 | China EV industry | Assembled fiscal and policy categories | Battery industry excluded; CSIS says 2023 is USD 22.9bn, not USD 45.3bn, using China's official tax data |
| Kiel: EUR 1,300 | Buyer subsidy | Per subsidised vehicle | Study period stated by Kiel | Consumer rebate only | MIIT settlement records | Not purchase-tax exemptions, charging, R&D or procurement; not comparable to CSIS per vehicle |
| Rhodium firm comparison | Counted direct grants and preferential finance in BYD versus Tesla built in China | Firm-to-firm cost gap | Current comparison in 2026 report | Two firms inside China | Itemised cost decomposition | Nets out China location; selected subsidy types only; no total battery or supply-chain support estimate |
Operative legal finding. Regulation (EU) 2024/2754 is final and operative. Additional rates are BYD 17.0%, Geely 18.8%, SAIC 35.3%, Tesla Shanghai 7.8%, other cooperating producers 20.7% and all others 35.3%, on top of 10% MFN; the lesser-duty rule was not applied. It is under WTO challenge in DS630, with no panel report expected before Q2 2027, and six undecided General Court actions. Legal status does not settle the evidentiary interpretation.
Cost cross-check, not a control. IEA observations of about 30% lower ICE production cost versus Germany and about 35% lower BEV production cost versus advanced economies use different comparators and unmatched vehicle definitions. They are consistent with a large general China manufacturing-cost advantage; subtraction between them identifies no EV-specific contribution. Rhodium's firm comparison does not find counted direct grants and preferential financing dominant in that comparison, but cannot support an industry-wide verdict.
Export and price evidence. The identified vehicle VAT remission is 13% against a 13% levy, full remission rather than excess remission under Annex I(g); that says nothing about support under other theories. The battery export rebate was cut to 9%, then 6%, and is abolished from 2027-01-01. Rhodium measures BYD Seal U per-unit profit at about EUR 14,300 in the EU versus EUR 1,300 in China, while the IEA says exporters seek higher returns abroad. The EU proceeded ex officio under anti-subsidy law, not anti-dumping law. The exports-minus-overseas-sales gap is reported by the IEA as destination inventory, partly shipping lag, and is not evidence about zero-mileage exports.
Separate comparators and objections. The IEA reports that LG Energy Solution and Panasonic Energy would have had negative 2024 operating margins without U.S. production credits, while CATL margins were 10% to 15% in 2020 to 2024 and 18% in 2025. Those facts do not establish comparable scope or competitive effect. South Africa's general/MFN rate is 25% for BEVs and combustion cars alike; 18% is a preference available to qualifying EU/UK combustion vehicles, not the general combustion rate. Finally, a Beijing think tank critique makes a specific, testable objection to the OECD Loan Prime Rate benchmark. Its co-author is a former senior central-bank official; it is a serious objection, not a neutral audit.
6. United States series
The United States is included in the inventory because all three subnational lists reached complete named coverage. Its sales path remains a confounded descriptive break. The monthly values, definitions, source history and already-published descriptive analysis are on U.S. EV and hybrid sales; no memo-derived decomposition is repeated here.
7. Method, sources and vintage
Roster rule. A country enters only if all six cells resolve from a primary source. An explicit primary-source statement of nonexistence or absence from a complete official schedule can resolve a negative. Company-car treatment is not exempt. A subnational cell must have complete named coverage. The frozen rule produced ten rows, each with six resolved cells, verified 2026-08-31.
Cell schema. Every policy cell records value, summary, implementation status, challenge status, verification status, jurisdiction level, announcement/effective/expiry dates, primary source and verification date. Every share records powertrain and vehicle scope, period, numerator, denominator, source URL and retrieval basis. Tense follows the structured statuses: Canada's mandate repeal and the U.S. CAFE reset are proposed; the EU CO2 revision remains in co-decision; the 2026-08-31 NHTSA document is interpretive; Canada's quota is in force.
Fuel taxation, added 2026-09-01. Section 3 was originally omitted because the tax component could not be isolated outside Europe. A dedicated verification pass established retail prices and statutory tax rates from primary sources for all six non-European markets, and both tax bases from the Oil Bulletin for sixteen EU member states, for the common month of July 2026, meeting the plan's Gate A, and the section was added. Non-European tax-exclusive values are calculated residuals, labelled as such in the section.
Excluded markets and gaps. Twenty-eight scoped markets were excluded because at least one of the six instrument cells lacked a primary-source resolution. The briefs do not contain a final per-market exclusion-cell ledger, so this page does not reconstruct or guess one. Company-car or benefit-in-kind treatment was the dominant documented coverage gap. The released page therefore covers 10 of 38 scoped markets and excludes 28. It is not a maintained world policy tracker. Blocked or automation-resistant hosts recorded in the briefs included acea.auto, regjeringen.no, retsinformation.dk, ft.dk, canada.ca, dep.nj.gov, tax.colorado.gov, svenskforfattningssamling.se, economie.gouv.fr, VicRoads, SRO Victoria, austlii.edu.au and several U.S. state-code portals.
Publication-day refresh gate. Before deployment, recheck the EU duty table and undertakings; DS630 and the six General Court actions; Canada's quota; Türkiye's implementation; the UK ZEV consultation; the EU CO2 proposal; Canada's proposed mandate repeal; the U.S. CAFE proposal; China's battery export rebate; Singapore's EEAI; Germany's PHEV window; and Norway's signalled 2027 VAT change. These page values remain stamped 2026-08-31 until that human gate is run.
Source boundary. Policy cells come from the committed verification briefs, with the plan's corrections overriding earlier conflicts. Country shares come from KBA, SDES, CBS, SCB, Statistics Denmark, SSB, DfT, Statistics Canada, the NVES Regulator and the site's Argonne-backed SQLite series. IEA figures appear only from the licence-cleared July 2026 report. The Policy Explorer PDF and downloadable GEVO dataset are not reproduced.